{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c7e26f31-068e-46a8-b1ca-66ed188ab1a8", "symbol": "MUV2", "name": "M\u00fcnchener R\u00fcckversicherungs-Gesellschaft Aktiengesellschaft in M\u00fcnchen", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 54.847, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 27.153, "architecture_energy": 47.46, "architecture_maturity": 8.552, "architecture_confidence": 65.888, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.95, "rotation_up": 73.21, "upward_expansion": 54.52, "deceleration": 16.5, "rotation_down": 14.28, "downward_expansion": 22.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 515.173339, 504.150911, 494.838872, 497.15413 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 515.400024, "trend_reference": 499.46889, "distance_from_trend": 0.031896, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 456.714072, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.128496, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.212818, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.015059, "excess_performance": -0.049581, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031896, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017428, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.128496, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009163, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.062128, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013362, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.015059, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.495366, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1778412, "relative_activity": 1.391004, "balance": 0.495366, "dry_up": 1.091319, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040118, "annualized_volatility": 0.198968, "from_high_reference": -0.062806, "from_low_reference": 0.16212 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 499.46889, "fair_value_reference": 456.714072, "structural_low": 443.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.057154, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.036967, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.001613, "worst_return": -0.109468, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.033516, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.025392, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.217023, "worst_return": -0.062909, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.161448, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.105104, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.321904, "worst_return": 0.000992, "sufficient": false }, { 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503.600006, "volume": 1067259, "typical_volume": 1314636.2, "trend": 500.255543, "fair_value": 451.367837, "relative_strength": -4.607505, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.575847, "energy": 21.467685, "activity_lines": [ 489.173336, 477.823637, 487.182428, 493.005634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 515.599976, "volume": 1033693, "typical_volume": 1294924.75, "trend": 499.759903, "fair_value": 452.724684, "relative_strength": -1.245775, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.517774, "energy": 30.745275, "activity_lines": [ 500.533327, 485.169087, 489.078131, 493.995598 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 509.0, "volume": 1453864, "typical_volume": 1273884.25, "trend": 498.834289, "fair_value": 453.994723, "relative_strength": -3.344598, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.136821, "energy": 33.690513, "activity_lines": [ 505.913328, 491.06727, 490.415161, 494.591733 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 522.2, "volume": 1315079, "typical_volume": 1282122.35, "trend": 499.048585, "fair_value": 455.391025, "relative_strength": -2.658015, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.854263, "energy": 43.372989, "activity_lines": [ 513.159996, 498.710906, 492.972495, 496.099198 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 515.400024, "volume": 1778412, "typical_volume": 1278509.9, "trend": 499.46889, "fair_value": 456.714072, "relative_strength": -6.212818, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.153011, "energy": 47.460277, "activity_lines": [ 515.173339, 504.150911, 494.838872, 497.15413 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }