{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c7e2e766-6def-42ea-8e0a-c989dfbf35d7", "symbol": "LREN3", "name": "Lojas Renner S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.42, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.142, "architecture_energy": 70.856, "architecture_maturity": 15.466, "architecture_confidence": 83.076, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.9, "rotation_up": 11.69, "upward_expansion": 16.97, "deceleration": 34.36, "rotation_down": 73.34, "downward_expansion": 87.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.174667, 13.729528, 14.067294, 14.270332 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.39, "trend_reference": 14.46291, "distance_from_trend": -0.143326, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.565391, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.086646, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.799359, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.189129, "excess_performance": -0.13208, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.143326, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004894, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.086646, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118388, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.177994, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0412, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.189129, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.328122, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 149582300, "relative_activity": 2.426084, "balance": 0.328122, "dry_up": 1.242408, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094351, "annualized_volatility": 0.352623, "from_high_reference": -0.261461, "from_low_reference": 0.08399 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.46291, "fair_value_reference": 13.565391, "structural_low": 11.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.010645, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012948, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.29786, "worst_return": -0.186245, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.117951, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.064389, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.36226, "worst_return": -0.215363, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.106687, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.158989, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.292441, "worst_return": -0.266809, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.081609, "energy": 17.727469, "activity_lines": [ 14.265643, 14.448399, 14.46689, 14.539991 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.27, "volume": 39222000, "typical_volume": 59294600.0, "trend": 14.473279, "fair_value": 13.592188, "relative_strength": -14.40371, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.594222, "energy": 48.974194, "activity_lines": [ 13.897333, 14.233836, 14.345077, 14.46196 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.6, "volume": 62172400, "typical_volume": 57914315.0, "trend": 14.486946, "fair_value": 13.579853, "relative_strength": -13.427439, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.690634, "energy": 54.069068, "activity_lines": [ 13.692, 14.080479, 14.260838, 14.405619 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.39, "volume": 149582300, "typical_volume": 61655860.0, "trend": 14.46291, "fair_value": 13.565391, "relative_strength": -17.799359, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.141569, "energy": 70.85574, "activity_lines": [ 13.174667, 13.729528, 14.067294, 14.270332 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }