{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c7eb4b6f-fb0f-4c9a-958d-5f3a840dfe7c", "symbol": "002123", "name": "Montnets Cloud Technology Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.787, "architecture_energy": 29.927, "architecture_maturity": 99.33, "architecture_confidence": 60.691, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.33, "rotation_up": 25.68, "upward_expansion": 15.2, "deceleration": 66.8, "rotation_down": 35.65, "downward_expansion": 62.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.106, 7.979091, 8.315667, 8.879032 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.41, "trend_reference": 9.834, "distance_from_trend": -0.144804, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.567348, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.272954, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.224222, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.280582, "excess_performance": -0.287981, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.144804, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12418, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.272954, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09496, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.282242, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102493, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.280582, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.112642, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 169211626, "relative_activity": 1.766789, "balance": 2.112642, "dry_up": 1.826221, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12412, "annualized_volatility": 0.44796, "from_high_reference": -0.515274, "from_low_reference": 0.16968 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.834, "fair_value_reference": 11.567348, "structural_low": 7.19, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.033751, "positive_rate": 0.346154, "directional_follow_through": 0.653846, "median_excess_return": -0.033101, "regime_survival": 0.884615, "best_return": 0.40678, "worst_return": -0.232053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.142857, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.146707, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.732026, "worst_return": -0.390492, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.230415, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.148227, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.921569, "worst_return": -0.391044, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"direction": -63.488329, "energy": 44.293377, "activity_lines": [ 7.813333, 7.839455, 8.427667, 9.097677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.26, "volume": 141311404, "typical_volume": 92042174.9, "trend": 9.959, "fair_value": 11.615697, "relative_strength": -26.949647, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.089218, "energy": 33.013447, "activity_lines": [ 7.968667, 7.883273, 8.358714, 8.978968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.41, "volume": 169211626, "typical_volume": 95773524.25, "trend": 9.834, "fair_value": 11.567348, "relative_strength": -28.224222, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.787207, "energy": 29.927286, "activity_lines": [ 8.106, 7.979091, 8.315667, 8.879032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }