{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c7f004ee-d167-4737-bfbc-7873fc3b6ab0", "symbol": "603230", "name": "Inner Mongolia Xinhua Distribution Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.216, "architecture_energy": 61.852, "architecture_maturity": 98.449, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 28.9, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.29, "rotation_down": 52.68, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.908667, 8.973979, 9.436218, 10.017803 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.03, "trend_reference": 10.815274, "distance_from_trend": -0.16507, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.845356, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.237676, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.929034, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.31383, "excess_performance": -0.270626, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.16507, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097732, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.237676, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125958, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.21929, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004871, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.31383, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.394159, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8748905, "relative_activity": 0.675024, "balance": 0.394159, "dry_up": 0.760867, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055393, "annualized_volatility": 0.277185, "from_high_reference": -0.418545, "from_low_reference": 0.062353 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.815274, "fair_value_reference": 11.845356, "structural_low": 8.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.010977, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.014328, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.151703, "worst_return": -0.143621, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.050302, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004734, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.313559, "worst_return": -0.187659, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.130022, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.101283, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.194068, "worst_return": 0.065977, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -25.024806, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.318994, "energy": 88.838164, "activity_lines": [ 8.824, 9.042241, 9.667916, 10.271644 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.01, "volume": 10408902, "typical_volume": 13188440.65, "trend": 10.925941, "fair_value": 11.863073, "relative_strength": -20.66757, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.863128, "energy": 69.933134, "activity_lines": [ 8.867333, 8.997228, 9.544448, 10.140121 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.03, "volume": 8748905, "typical_volume": 12960878.65, "trend": 10.815274, "fair_value": 11.845356, "relative_strength": -21.929034, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.215561, "energy": 61.851568, "activity_lines": [ 8.908667, 8.973979, 9.436218, 10.017803 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }