{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c7f416a7-4fc1-491d-9ea7-553a35708a20", "symbol": "603708", "name": "Jiajiayue Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.351, "architecture_energy": 30.616, "architecture_maturity": 89.596, "architecture_confidence": 77.329, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.06, "rotation_up": 27.74, "upward_expansion": 22.26, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 28.09, "downward_expansion": 58.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.324, 9.198285, 9.489787, 9.983126 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.32, "trend_reference": 10.742894, "distance_from_trend": -0.13245, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.364523, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.100779, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.045895, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.283628, "excess_performance": -0.240424, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.13245, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073532, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.100779, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082759, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140459, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004685, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.283628, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.563391, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20523484, "relative_activity": 1.134567, "balance": 0.563391, "dry_up": 1.109107, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063306, "annualized_volatility": 0.258375, "from_high_reference": -0.341808, "from_low_reference": 0.103372 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.742894, "fair_value_reference": 10.364523, "structural_low": 8.446833, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.006304, "positive_rate": 0.551724, "directional_follow_through": 0.448276, "median_excess_return": 0.009701, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.288751, "worst_return": -0.169216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.007002, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.035299, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.248288, "worst_return": -0.196193, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.050949, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017227, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.137049, "worst_return": -0.124467, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 9.077455, 9.181221, 9.721647, 10.29917 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.98, "volume": 21179322, "typical_volume": 18331718.7, "trend": 10.911561, "fair_value": 10.398912, "relative_strength": -15.017748, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.698704, "energy": 57.024769, "activity_lines": [ 9.081767, 9.117515, 9.602281, 10.165586 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.59, "volume": 16586607, "typical_volume": 18122390.3, "trend": 10.826561, "fair_value": 10.384733, "relative_strength": -9.420038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.801843, "energy": 38.332511, "activity_lines": [ 9.285333, 9.181306, 9.554248, 10.080324 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.32, "volume": 20523484, "typical_volume": 18089265.75, "trend": 10.742894, "fair_value": 10.364523, "relative_strength": -14.045895, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.351387, "energy": 30.615533, "activity_lines": [ 9.324, 9.198285, 9.489787, 9.983126 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }