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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.541, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.813, "architecture_energy": 52.633, "architecture_maturity": 17.705, "architecture_confidence": 83.405, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.53, "rotation_up": 56.68, "upward_expansion": 80.25, "deceleration": 56.7, "rotation_down": 23.72, "downward_expansion": 6.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 372.476667, 369.416162, 366.265593, 358.704172 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 383.05, "trend_reference": 350.311539, "distance_from_trend": 0.093455, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 283.819743, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.349624, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.265375, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.12668, "excess_performance": 0.001055, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093455, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027408, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.349624, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010154, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.002654, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006939, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.12668, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.242545, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 994014, "relative_activity": 0.405275, "balance": 1.242545, "dry_up": 0.536372, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028358, "annualized_volatility": 0.164192, "from_high_reference": -0.0046, "from_low_reference": 0.250831 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 350.311539, "fair_value_reference": 283.819743, "structural_low": 306.236502, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.014775, "positive_rate": 0.675, "directional_follow_through": 0.675, "median_excess_return": 0.000962, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.07555, "worst_return": -0.07332, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.038835, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.005553, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.144142, "worst_return": -0.049699, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.084262, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.006132, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.173901, "worst_return": -0.167698, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.94368, "energy": 41.708062, "activity_lines": [ 366.638886, 366.97395, 359.37515, 352.830202 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 366.89, "volume": 1244856, "typical_volume": 4918670.3, "trend": 347.475359, "fair_value": 280.58797, "relative_strength": -0.645892, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.884266, "energy": 39.594816, "activity_lines": [ 367.048667, 366.866597, 361.003544, 354.140863 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 363.23, "volume": 1518023, "typical_volume": 4783509.4, "trend": 348.079468, "fair_value": 281.588722, "relative_strength": -1.048692, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.37004, "energy": 36.24594, "activity_lines": [ 366.024667, 366.089561, 362.123334, 355.157291 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 369.03, "volume": 1505328, "typical_volume": 3019357.5, "trend": 349.023873, "fair_value": 282.656781, "relative_strength": -0.555436, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.890847, "energy": 40.651902, "activity_lines": [ 367.296, 366.465317, 363.633851, 356.508938 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 383.05, "volume": 994014, "typical_volume": 2452690.5, "trend": 350.311539, "fair_value": 283.819743, "relative_strength": -0.265375, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.813285, "energy": 52.633044, "activity_lines": [ 372.476667, 369.416162, 366.265593, 358.704172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }