{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c80c9395-5b89-4fde-8c38-87e3692d50b1", "symbol": "603367", "name": "Cisen Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.194, "architecture_energy": 17.917, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 57.996, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.58, "rotation_up": 34.6, "upward_expansion": 20.82, "deceleration": 44.15, "rotation_down": 16.98, "downward_expansion": 52.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.322667, 13.959455, 14.089946, 14.642519 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.98, "trend_reference": 15.535276, "distance_from_trend": -0.035743, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.194637, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.014126, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.994229, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.143511, "excess_performance": -0.100307, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035743, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101762, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.014126, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031168, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.179942, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06868, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.143511, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.048538, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 80351800, "relative_activity": 1.859314, "balance": 1.048538, "dry_up": 2.188742, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071261, "annualized_volatility": 0.272111, "from_high_reference": -0.57044, "from_low_reference": 0.20418 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.535276, "fair_value_reference": 15.194637, "structural_low": 12.44, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.028046, "positive_rate": 0.684211, "directional_follow_through": 0.315789, "median_excess_return": 0.018675, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.119228, "worst_return": -0.131046, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.020816, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.033027, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.150155, "worst_return": -0.159009, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.095201, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.116923, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.248198, "worst_return": -0.246415, "sufficient": true }, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.923612, "energy": 39.679099, "activity_lines": [ 13.710667, 13.589383, 14.21335, 14.921368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.84, "volume": 99166516, "typical_volume": 38586525.15, "trend": 15.738609, "fair_value": 15.188269, "relative_strength": -23.891757, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.810256, "energy": 26.31272, "activity_lines": [ 13.831333, 13.617509, 14.113358, 14.789737 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.09, "volume": 57630500, "typical_volume": 40315024.3, "trend": 15.613276, "fair_value": 15.188003, "relative_strength": -22.181851, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.85796, "energy": 22.060116, "activity_lines": [ 13.983333, 13.70581, 14.052128, 14.683376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.98, "volume": 80351800, "typical_volume": 43215823.75, "trend": 15.535276, "fair_value": 15.194637, "relative_strength": -17.994229, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.194291, "energy": 17.91741, "activity_lines": [ 14.322667, 13.959455, 14.089946, 14.642519 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }