{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c80e89bd-60a2-485e-b919-4121ad6df1d9", "symbol": "STRX", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI Europe Consumer Discretionary UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 71.015, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.947, "architecture_energy": 66.596, "architecture_maturity": 22.041, "architecture_confidence": 79.692, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.45, "rotation_up": 59.71, "upward_expansion": 83.86, "deceleration": 52.88, "rotation_down": 19.95, "downward_expansion": 12.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 149.869333, 149.167998, 146.531428, 144.874709 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 153.5, "trend_reference": 144.678, "distance_from_trend": 0.060977, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 157.462308, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.025164, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.288874, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.037443, "excess_performance": -0.045441, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060977, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030148, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.025164, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096183, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.082889, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029904, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.037443, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.349315, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2, "relative_activity": 0.012662, "balance": 8.349315, "dry_up": 0.432099, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021178, "annualized_volatility": 0.205568, "from_high_reference": -0.077302, "from_low_reference": 0.184048 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 144.678, "fair_value_reference": 157.462308, "structural_low": 129.639999, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.009638, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00482, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.057681, "worst_return": -0.011551, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.065803, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.001494, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.167085, "worst_return": -0.13034, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.057681, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.081767, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.203347, "worst_return": -0.108751, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.069526, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.015871, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.07113, "worst_return": 0.067922, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019349, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006775, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.013741, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038786, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00712, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038728, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019299, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002098, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.010564, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02049, 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"typical_volume": 147.0, "trend": 146.653334, "fair_value": 157.925, "relative_strength": -11.094237, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.93114, "energy": 52.774112, "activity_lines": [ 148.46133, 147.10218, 143.707619, 143.972688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 148.899994, "volume": 258, "typical_volume": 159.6, "trend": 146.154667, "fair_value": 157.791026, "relative_strength": -10.839694, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.781165, "energy": 36.345305, "activity_lines": [ 148.475996, 147.774906, 144.394856, 144.117634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 145.479996, "volume": 11, "typical_volume": 158.8, "trend": 145.584, "fair_value": 157.629359, "relative_strength": -12.377842, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.391634, "energy": 24.277208, "activity_lines": [ 147.407996, 147.663633, 144.756189, 144.074107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 149.600006, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 158.1, "trend": 145.106667, "fair_value": 157.52641, "relative_strength": -9.673702, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.132585, "energy": 27.92659, "activity_lines": [ 148.057332, 148.147271, 145.485904, 144.333204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 153.5, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 157.95, "trend": 144.678, "fair_value": 157.462308, "relative_strength": -8.288874, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.947099, "energy": 66.596415, "activity_lines": [ 149.869333, 149.167998, 146.531428, 144.874709 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }