{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c8112d8a-4776-445c-a8ef-ce5eb01a6407", "symbol": "300503", "name": "Guangzhou Haozhi Industrial Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 17.434, "architecture_energy": 22.93, "architecture_maturity": 70.055, "architecture_confidence": 92.132, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.53, "rotation_up": 19.17, "upward_expansion": 49.04, "deceleration": 91.09, "rotation_down": 46.2, "downward_expansion": 28.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 70.253999, 77.226727, 76.644039, 71.926079 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 74.489998, "trend_reference": 66.915968, "distance_from_trend": 0.113187, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.232187, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.548218, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 41.542596, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.34206, "excess_performance": 0.33466, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.113187, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.279588, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.548218, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.343262, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.415426, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111717, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.34206, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.875682, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 121693123, "relative_activity": 1.234788, "balance": 0.875682, "dry_up": 1.080386, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.230967, "annualized_volatility": 0.955906, "from_high_reference": -0.35718, "from_low_reference": 2.256692 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 66.915968, "fair_value_reference": 29.232187, "structural_low": 44.976708, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.018408, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.022866, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.364603, "worst_return": -0.200746, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.048666, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.009475, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.487847, "worst_return": -0.215178, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.029082, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033099, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.175347, "worst_return": -0.282517, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062227, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.105505, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060304, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.234331, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.147181, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"direction": 52.036956, "energy": 38.167703, "activity_lines": [ 86.417333, 85.132079, 77.36527, 71.597192 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 64.730003, "volume": 107166503, "typical_volume": 95233141.9, "trend": 65.994612, "fair_value": 28.570758, "relative_strength": 31.701394, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.238517, "energy": 20.932896, "activity_lines": [ 78.735334, 81.749532, 76.928628, 71.577632 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 63.459999, "volume": 87167764, "typical_volume": 96803918.55, "trend": 66.554454, "fair_value": 28.859381, "relative_strength": 29.186253, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.033669, "energy": 16.880794, "activity_lines": [ 72.2, 78.251091, 76.297755, 71.414108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 74.489998, "volume": 121693123, "typical_volume": 98553870.1, "trend": 66.915968, "fair_value": 29.232187, "relative_strength": 41.542596, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.433621, "energy": 22.930054, "activity_lines": [ 70.253999, 77.226727, 76.644039, 71.926079 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }