{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c812be4a-f90e-4794-8a23-4248c888d2e7", "symbol": "HUNTER", "name": "Hunter Capital AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -12.469, "architecture_energy": 13.787, "architecture_maturity": 20.003, "architecture_confidence": 59.095, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.6, "rotation_up": 32.5, "upward_expansion": 29.28, "deceleration": 46.78, "rotation_down": 18.77, "downward_expansion": 39.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.33, 9.974, 9.967381, 10.214731 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.15, "trend_reference": 10.818333, "distance_from_trend": -0.061778, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.37625, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.211759, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.338676, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.29021, "excess_performance": -0.351704, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061778, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178084, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.211759, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175416, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.323387, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113885, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.29021, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.24547, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2464, "relative_activity": 0.243213, "balance": 0.24547, "dry_up": 0.288815, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.135127, "annualized_volatility": 0.497465, "from_high_reference": -0.704942, "from_low_reference": 0.26875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.818333, "fair_value_reference": 8.37625, "structural_low": 8.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.104875, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.079393, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.834286, "worst_return": -0.5625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.166895, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.214678, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.726695, "worst_return": -0.48875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.204724, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.273029, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.719409, "worst_return": -0.650625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013216, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.056962, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.137056, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010989, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.531915, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.153333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.197531, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015748, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.026316, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009756, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.875, "volume": 12114, "typical_volume": 18547.85, "trend": 11.015, "fair_value": 104.298277, "relative_strength": -62.835038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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"typical_volume": 12697.0, "trend": 11.391667, "fair_value": 8.327212, "relative_strength": -31.113355, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.441053, "energy": 30.316114, "activity_lines": [ 9.422667, 9.497818, 9.887619, 10.411613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.9, "volume": 5807, "typical_volume": 11762.7, "trend": 11.161667, "fair_value": 8.345481, "relative_strength": -31.458062, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.373341, "energy": 21.854824, "activity_lines": [ 9.641333, 9.514364, 9.857381, 10.315376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.1, "volume": 2183, "typical_volume": 10566.75, "trend": 10.995, "fair_value": 8.361827, "relative_strength": -24.139846, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.589758, "energy": 12.63498, "activity_lines": [ 10.181333, 9.776364, 9.950952, 10.311398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.25, "volume": 1250, "typical_volume": 10125.05, "trend": 10.903333, "fair_value": 8.36984, "relative_strength": -30.716227, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.71556, "energy": 18.038698, "activity_lines": [ 10.316667, 9.881091, 9.963095, 10.263333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.15, "volume": 2464, "typical_volume": 10131.05, "trend": 10.818333, "fair_value": 8.37625, "relative_strength": -32.338676, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.468663, "energy": 13.787407, "activity_lines": [ 10.33, 9.974, 9.967381, 10.214731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }