{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c812e156-be66-4e9c-9b72-0a0bc7f69556", "symbol": "OPAL", "name": "OPAL Fuels Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 58.363, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 14.228, "architecture_energy": 19.716, "architecture_maturity": 10.868, "architecture_confidence": 40.438, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.02, "rotation_up": 54.6, "upward_expansion": 38.99, "deceleration": 34.11, "rotation_down": 15.96, "downward_expansion": 13.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.320667, 2.233182, 2.199024, 2.205753 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.33, "trend_reference": 2.24, "distance_from_trend": 0.040179, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.544071, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.342564, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.863866, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.033195, "excess_performance": -0.220649, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040179, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034829, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.342564, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08158, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118639, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114519, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033195, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.596626, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 826928, "relative_activity": 0.708275, "balance": 0.596626, "dry_up": 0.857706, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.143437, "annualized_volatility": 0.583202, "from_high_reference": -0.188153, "from_low_reference": 0.412121 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.24, "fair_value_reference": 3.544071, "structural_low": 1.75, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.062234, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.057738, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.258373, "worst_return": -0.242188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.027428, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.063868, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.02, "worst_return": -0.213693, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.130257, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.203759, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.024, "worst_return": -0.236515, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095238, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.152, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.140187, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.246094, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.360215, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 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2.143273, 2.170762, 2.197366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.21, "volume": 985591, "typical_volume": 1252554.1, "trend": 2.248333, "fair_value": 3.613045, "relative_strength": -12.27063, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.137008, "energy": 17.695788, "activity_lines": [ 2.248, 2.161909, 2.172548, 2.19386 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.35, "volume": 944401, "typical_volume": 1253616.85, "trend": 2.247333, "fair_value": 3.575865, "relative_strength": -6.892432, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.420022, "energy": 17.775889, "activity_lines": [ 2.295333, 2.201091, 2.187238, 2.200419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.33, "volume": 826928, "typical_volume": 1167523.1, "trend": 2.24, "fair_value": 3.544071, "relative_strength": -11.863866, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.227953, "energy": 19.716413, "activity_lines": [ 2.320667, 2.233182, 2.199024, 2.205753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }