{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c8158f1b-5052-4013-bf63-8973b1f97d07", "symbol": "1H8", "name": "LY Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.816, "architecture_energy": 33.849, "architecture_maturity": 33.966, "architecture_confidence": 95.812, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.1, "rotation_up": 23.0, "upward_expansion": 5.2, "deceleration": 45.5, "rotation_down": 45.17, "downward_expansion": 78.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0402, 0.0404, 0.041224, 0.042452 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.041, "trend_reference": 0.043633, "distance_from_trend": -0.060351, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.065821, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.377094, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -27.318542, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.025, "excess_performance": -0.129835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060351, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070972, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.377094, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049876, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.273185, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027725, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.025, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.549731, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.549731, "dry_up": 1.157621, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103189, "annualized_volatility": 0.588669, "from_high_reference": -0.438356, "from_low_reference": 40.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.043633, "fair_value_reference": 0.065821, "structural_low": 0.001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.157895, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.010074, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.975, "worst_return": -0.367089, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.026919, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.017689, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.975, "worst_return": -0.531646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.227844, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.252062, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.725, "worst_return": -0.493671, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.425345, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.543261, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.820513, "worst_return": -0.566667, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084615, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.252101, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089888, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.320988, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.163636, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.185185, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.414286, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"volume": 0, "typical_volume": 13310.0, "trend": 0.0443, "fair_value": 0.065827, "relative_strength": -30.883517, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.750714, "energy": 35.650229, "activity_lines": [ 0.039533, 0.040145, 0.041657, 0.042865 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.041, "volume": 80200, "typical_volume": 17320.0, "trend": 0.0441, "fair_value": 0.065853, "relative_strength": -27.232206, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.585918, "energy": 26.029807, "activity_lines": [ 0.039667, 0.040255, 0.041424, 0.042652 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.041, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 17320.0, "trend": 0.043633, "fair_value": 0.065821, "relative_strength": -27.318542, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.815738, "energy": 33.848787, "activity_lines": [ 0.0402, 0.0404, 0.041224, 0.042452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }