{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c816e1db-bf60-442b-8fcc-b9b31d8962f2", "symbol": "EBIZ", "name": "GLOBAL X E-COMMERCE ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 49.664, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 59.986, "architecture_energy": 75.101, "architecture_maturity": 9.555, "architecture_confidence": 60.964, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.82, "rotation_up": 78.13, "upward_expansion": 65.66, "deceleration": 20.88, "rotation_down": 16.27, "downward_expansion": 23.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.079093, 29.264023, 28.579105, 28.386931 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 31.3474, "trend_reference": 28.642521, "distance_from_trend": 0.094436, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.74226, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.172205, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.195849, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.029143, "excess_performance": -0.15831, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094436, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045421, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.172205, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088237, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111958, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.143057, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.029143, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.956263, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27384, "relative_activity": 1.500144, "balance": 1.956263, "dry_up": 1.06393, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03621, "annualized_volatility": 0.230923, "from_high_reference": -0.127416, "from_low_reference": 0.212665 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.642521, "fair_value_reference": 26.74226, "structural_low": 25.85, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.023292, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.033118, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.080284, "worst_return": -0.0182, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.055759, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005351, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.15293, "worst_return": -0.085129, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.044909, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.098275, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.097335, "worst_return": 0.026421, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 28.812515, "fair_value": 26.596509, "relative_strength": -15.053403, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.19948, "energy": 29.038646, "activity_lines": [ 28.79756, 28.303423, 28.018938, 28.129116 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.1904, "volume": 16699, "typical_volume": 17862.2, "trend": 28.729148, "fair_value": 26.664245, "relative_strength": -10.580516, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.974574, "energy": 62.693157, "activity_lines": [ 29.3346, 28.702547, 28.25094, 28.218011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.3474, "volume": 27384, "typical_volume": 18254.25, "trend": 28.642521, "fair_value": 26.74226, "relative_strength": -11.195849, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 59.985529, "energy": 75.101054, "activity_lines": [ 30.079093, 29.264023, 28.579105, 28.386931 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }