{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c8177acd-ee72-421b-a83c-4b8e540e4a68", "symbol": "002488", "name": "Zhejiang Jingu Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.32, "architecture_energy": 53.707, "architecture_maturity": 29.732, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.53, "rotation_up": 21.72, "upward_expansion": 8.97, "deceleration": 50.76, "rotation_down": 54.82, "downward_expansion": 79.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.762667, 8.93408, 9.762549, 10.378937 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.79, "trend_reference": 11.075001, "distance_from_trend": -0.206321, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.563995, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.080928, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.083941, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.266889, "excess_performance": -0.274289, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.206321, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002555, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.080928, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.477629, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.230839, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08768, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.266889, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.142219, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 162631226, "relative_activity": 1.764406, "balance": 0.142219, "dry_up": 1.527768, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111774, "annualized_volatility": 0.440907, "from_high_reference": -0.393793, "from_low_reference": 0.143043 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.075001, "fair_value_reference": 9.563995, "structural_low": 7.99, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.081633, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": 0.012166, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.402424, "worst_return": -0.187196, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.127635, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.184568, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.639535, "worst_return": -0.286872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.095458, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.148825, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.548333, "worst_return": -0.076175, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-72.346965, "energy": 78.391025, "activity_lines": [ 9.217842, 9.704821, 10.599692, 10.991345 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.48, "volume": 125094223, "typical_volume": 90448638.7, "trend": 11.060001, "fair_value": 9.528445, "relative_strength": -25.789175, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.887962, "energy": 80.625337, "activity_lines": [ 8.939955, 9.367838, 10.338692, 10.824743 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.4, "volume": 157400753, "typical_volume": 90473535.7, "trend": 11.065001, "fair_value": 9.537369, "relative_strength": -25.69127, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.497963, "energy": 73.892289, "activity_lines": [ 8.719333, 9.098768, 10.092216, 10.65313 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.1, "volume": 118151646, "typical_volume": 89266060.7, "trend": 11.075001, "fair_value": 9.551037, "relative_strength": -17.210015, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.781184, "energy": 64.347241, "activity_lines": [ 8.801333, 9.025085, 9.93493, 10.526356 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.79, "volume": 162631226, "typical_volume": 92173357.85, "trend": 11.075001, "fair_value": 9.563995, "relative_strength": -23.083941, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.319897, "energy": 53.706728, "activity_lines": [ 8.762667, 8.93408, 9.762549, 10.378937 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }