{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c81a3d2e-f02b-4386-bd3c-e4d21b4cc630", "symbol": "RIEU", "name": "L&G MSCI Europe Select UCITS ETF - EUR Accumulating ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 63.841, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.702, "architecture_energy": 81.074, "architecture_maturity": 38.006, "architecture_confidence": 71.789, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.26, "rotation_up": 67.0, "upward_expansion": 90.11, "deceleration": 49.66, "rotation_down": 21.46, "downward_expansion": 16.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.861667, 19.747109, 19.436262, 19.201374 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.135, "trend_reference": 18.964867, "distance_from_trend": 0.0617, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.365718, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.230316, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.816095, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.081829, "excess_performance": -0.089063, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0617, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032562, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.230316, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054666, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.058161, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01465, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.081829, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.291261, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1583, "relative_activity": 0.083928, "balance": 0.291261, "dry_up": 0.595393, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013753, "annualized_volatility": 0.149015, "from_high_reference": -0.000248, "from_low_reference": 0.196944 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.964867, "fair_value_reference": 16.365718, "structural_low": 17.195999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.005545, "positive_rate": 0.621622, "directional_follow_through": 0.621622, "median_excess_return": -0.005818, "regime_survival": 0.702703, "best_return": 0.073475, "worst_return": -0.096891, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.031117, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.008761, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.081567, "worst_return": -0.076901, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.082443, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.004649, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.14861, "worst_return": -0.175032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-5.630003, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.767553, "energy": 94.114135, "activity_lines": [ 19.568733, 19.324109, 19.014086, 18.880912 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 19.643999, "volume": 67244, "typical_volume": 17934.5, "trend": 18.735367, "fair_value": 16.213058, "relative_strength": -6.808298, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.165307, "energy": 85.601901, "activity_lines": [ 19.6444, 19.417691, 19.090614, 18.943658 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.700001, "volume": 69, "typical_volume": 17170.1, "trend": 18.7975, "fair_value": 16.251301, "relative_strength": -5.046844, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.824166, "energy": 86.225881, "activity_lines": [ 19.6942, 19.504909, 19.170667, 19.005893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.586, "volume": 39622, "typical_volume": 18959.35, "trend": 18.8503, "fair_value": 16.286904, "relative_strength": -5.268897, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.556456, "energy": 79.929819, "activity_lines": [ 19.678, 19.552964, 19.238948, 19.056764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.862, "volume": 3646, "typical_volume": 19130.45, "trend": 18.905233, "fair_value": 16.324276, "relative_strength": -4.479991, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.368738, "energy": 64.445322, "activity_lines": [ 19.737133, 19.6316, 19.3284, 19.122034 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.135, "volume": 1583, "typical_volume": 18861.5, "trend": 18.964867, "fair_value": 16.365718, "relative_strength": -5.816095, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.702078, "energy": 81.073869, "activity_lines": [ 19.861667, 19.747109, 19.436262, 19.201374 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }