{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c81bced2-4c9f-4e19-a77d-9dcfd059d1ca", "symbol": "300315", "name": "Ourpalm Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.509, "architecture_energy": 32.316, "architecture_maturity": 91.661, "architecture_confidence": 90.897, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.21, "rotation_up": 27.17, "upward_expansion": 17.05, "deceleration": 46.97, "rotation_down": 36.16, "downward_expansion": 67.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.17, 4.090545, 4.28019, 4.513634 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.28, "trend_reference": 4.874667, "distance_from_trend": -0.121991, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.126154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.165066, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.916591, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.292562, "excess_performance": -0.299962, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.121991, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062444, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.165066, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144094, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.189166, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030413, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.292562, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.352233, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 443772325, "relative_activity": 1.567161, "balance": 0.352233, "dry_up": 1.527933, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082315, "annualized_volatility": 0.382524, "from_high_reference": -0.451282, "from_low_reference": 0.156757 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.874667, "fair_value_reference": 5.126154, "structural_low": 3.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.046117, "positive_rate": 0.64, "directional_follow_through": 0.32, "median_excess_return": 0.026461, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.154812, "worst_return": -0.193906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.018293, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.034201, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.650718, "worst_return": -0.125749, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.103044, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.157922, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.50655, "worst_return": -0.193906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003774, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.077491, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011605, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00994, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.310306, "energy": 83.718665, "activity_lines": [ 3.982667, 4.154364, 4.461714, 4.723011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.94, "volume": 415113440, "typical_volume": 304806969.5, "trend": 4.946, "fair_value": 5.164872, "relative_strength": -24.473845, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.449919, "energy": 64.564406, "activity_lines": [ 3.966667, 4.077455, 4.387952, 4.656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.89, "volume": 387823659, "typical_volume": 298058902.95, "trend": 4.914, "fair_value": 5.149103, "relative_strength": -24.91359, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.065523, "energy": 60.45784, "activity_lines": [ 3.944667, 4.014, 4.318333, 4.587871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.38, "volume": 483947057, "typical_volume": 285067016.3, "trend": 4.896667, "fair_value": 5.13609, "relative_strength": -13.461013, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.651018, "energy": 40.92024, "activity_lines": [ 4.093333, 4.058, 4.301714, 4.553419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.28, "volume": 443772325, "typical_volume": 283169598.1, "trend": 4.874667, "fair_value": 5.126154, "relative_strength": -18.916591, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.509434, "energy": 32.316233, "activity_lines": [ 4.17, 4.090545, 4.28019, 4.513634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }