{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c829cd0c-3156-4851-a19c-2c7acb5ba9e2", "symbol": "ATIC", "name": "Actic Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.482, "architecture_energy": 38.358, "architecture_maturity": 7.299, "architecture_confidence": 59.178, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.4, "rotation_up": 20.97, "upward_expansion": 14.4, "deceleration": 48.26, "rotation_down": 56.78, "downward_expansion": 53.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.493333, 29.912727, 30.969047, 31.076774 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 30.4, "trend_reference": 30.901666, "distance_from_trend": -0.016234, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.811731, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.922623, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.062692, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.037543, "excess_performance": -0.023952, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016234, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000539, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.922623, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.47231, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.090627, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125692, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.037543, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.35844, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50343, "relative_activity": 0.453343, "balance": 1.35844, "dry_up": 0.706108, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07414, "annualized_volatility": 0.502222, "from_high_reference": -0.232323, "from_low_reference": 0.497537 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.901666, "fair_value_reference": 15.811731, "structural_low": 24.799999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.053333, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.040714, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.369099, "worst_return": -0.039755, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.082774, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.006915, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.257511, "worst_return": -0.186544, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.017897, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.126931, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.401288, "worst_return": -0.259939, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.075652, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.091606, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.297539, "worst_return": -0.448843, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.101083, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.003448, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090032, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.332921, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.474227, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017921, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.160839, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.369099, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016949, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074534, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.22695, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078286, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009983, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085714, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.48, "volume": 12561, "typical_volume": 132957.0, "trend": 5.192333, "fair_value": 10.237271, "relative_strength": -9.075707, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": 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263107.3, "trend": 31.21, "fair_value": 14.375385, "relative_strength": -0.984815, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.524787, "energy": 30.353281, "activity_lines": [ 33.193333, 33.011818, 32.174999, 31.824623 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 31.200001, "volume": 11384, "typical_volume": 244568.5, "trend": 31.486666, "fair_value": 14.546282, "relative_strength": -3.743963, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.132366, "energy": 16.928535, "activity_lines": [ 32.563333, 32.691818, 32.165476, 31.823978 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 30.049999, "volume": 68789, "typical_volume": 234628.15, "trend": 31.635, "fair_value": 14.706346, "relative_strength": -9.482453, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.315885, "energy": 8.622248, "activity_lines": [ 31.646666, 32.173636, 32.032142, 31.73129 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 31.799999, "volume": 11406, "typical_volume": 220018.05, "trend": 31.748333, "fair_value": 14.881859, "relative_strength": -3.863691, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.24928, "energy": 15.940907, "activity_lines": [ 31.476666, 32.056363, 32.063333, 31.741935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 31.049999, "volume": 13868, "typical_volume": 206676.9, "trend": 31.72, "fair_value": 15.051026, "relative_strength": -8.528203, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.855522, "energy": 19.942474, "activity_lines": [ 31.136666, 31.84, 32.01119, 31.696881 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 29.700001, "volume": 78819, "typical_volume": 159605.45, "trend": 31.53, "fair_value": 15.205897, "relative_strength": -10.331945, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.483828, "energy": 31.907196, "activity_lines": [ 30.626666, 31.387273, 31.836904, 31.566559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.75, "volume": 38840, "typical_volume": 146142.45, "trend": 31.361666, "fair_value": 15.360064, "relative_strength": -8.909793, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.799834, "energy": 37.545441, "activity_lines": [ 30.29, 30.991818, 31.659285, 31.45172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.0, "volume": 133136, "typical_volume": 127401.55, "trend": 31.221666, "fair_value": 15.504295, "relative_strength": -14.752774, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.190932, "energy": 53.354708, "activity_lines": [ 29.466667, 30.330909, 31.318571, 31.234838 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.299999, "volume": 91330, "typical_volume": 121475.2, "trend": 30.928333, "fair_value": 15.654295, "relative_strength": -11.19897, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.658012, "energy": 50.206101, "activity_lines": [ 29.213333, 29.988182, 31.097381, 31.11086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.4, "volume": 50343, "typical_volume": 111048.45, "trend": 30.901666, "fair_value": 15.811731, "relative_strength": -9.062692, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.482468, "energy": 38.357897, "activity_lines": [ 29.493333, 29.912727, 30.969047, 31.076774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }