{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c82affec-a4bb-4c42-95a1-5d49c0ceec61", "symbol": "H2OA", "name": "iShares Global Water UCITS ETF", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.813, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.235, "architecture_energy": 45.055, "architecture_maturity": 20.819, "architecture_confidence": 61.742, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.3, "rotation_up": 62.71, "upward_expansion": 78.1, "deceleration": 63.47, "rotation_down": 14.82, "downward_expansion": 4.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.47, 25.357818, 24.961558, 24.900741 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 25.809999, "trend_reference": 24.89515, "distance_from_trend": 0.036748, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.968802, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.123698, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.514466, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.02482, "excess_performance": -0.091842, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036748, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012583, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.123698, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045733, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.065145, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003738, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.02482, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.798612, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58984, "relative_activity": 1.861836, "balance": 0.798612, "dry_up": 1.644234, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025214, "annualized_volatility": 0.132803, "from_high_reference": -0.00935, "from_low_reference": 0.106301 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.89515, "fair_value_reference": 22.968802, "structural_low": 23.33, "invalidation": "A decisive 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"fair_value": 22.835789, "relative_strength": -6.192591, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.963521, "energy": 57.132175, "activity_lines": [ 25.318, 24.819727, 24.673472, 24.732739 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.549999, "volume": 44333, "typical_volume": 31061.7, "trend": 24.781027, "fair_value": 22.868618, "relative_strength": -6.551999, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.848605, "energy": 64.955961, "activity_lines": [ 25.484999, 25.010272, 24.754221, 24.785706 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.375, "volume": 58784, "typical_volume": 31705.2, "trend": 24.82549, "fair_value": 22.899335, "relative_strength": -6.848784, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.23023, "energy": 57.998945, "activity_lines": [ 25.498666, 25.146909, 24.820101, 24.824027 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.065001, "volume": 46260, "typical_volume": 29665.15, "trend": 24.860443, "fair_value": 22.931161, "relative_strength": -8.471922, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.038905, "energy": 32.661464, "activity_lines": [ 25.346667, 25.195182, 24.856141, 24.839479 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.809999, "volume": 58984, "typical_volume": 31680.55, "trend": 24.89515, "fair_value": 22.968802, "relative_strength": -6.514466, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.23513, "energy": 45.05498, "activity_lines": [ 25.47, 25.357818, 24.961558, 24.900741 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }