{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c82d9fe6-c3a4-48af-bcd3-b13d51da70db", "symbol": "ECOF", "name": "WisdomTree Coffee - EUR Daily Hedged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.313, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.154, "architecture_energy": 83.222, "architecture_maturity": 23.489, "architecture_confidence": 63.187, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.61, "rotation_up": 80.73, "upward_expansion": 94.58, "deceleration": 42.18, "rotation_down": 8.4, "downward_expansion": 18.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.780867, 7.4142, 6.96731, 6.869613 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.017, "trend_reference": 6.860267, "distance_from_trend": 0.168613, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.811677, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.379464, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.307477, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.196032, "excess_performance": 0.02514, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.168613, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053822, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.379464, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.219476, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.073075, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.161382, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.196032, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.368546, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5410, "relative_activity": 0.511468, "balance": 1.368546, "dry_up": 1.036219, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064286, "annualized_volatility": 0.344264, "from_high_reference": -0.130477, "from_low_reference": 0.422463 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.860267, "fair_value_reference": 5.811677, "structural_low": 5.636, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.006428, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.003749, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.065659, "worst_return": -0.081705, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.020578, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.036237, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.122744, "worst_return": -0.022171, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.160818, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.212158, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.253942, "worst_return": -0.21228, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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6.623182, 6.566567, 6.653308 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.572, "volume": 24135, "typical_volume": 11134.15, "trend": 6.878733, "fair_value": 5.718081, "relative_strength": -9.487369, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.965319, "energy": 47.709804, "activity_lines": [ 7.3166, 6.830236, 6.66121, 6.697865 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.408, "volume": 9989, "typical_volume": 11062.5, "trend": 6.8661, "fair_value": 5.747376, "relative_strength": -11.228612, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.249517, "energy": 60.175008, "activity_lines": [ 7.439333, 6.985709, 6.734529, 6.732011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.845, "volume": 4308, "typical_volume": 10970.5, "trend": 6.863067, "fair_value": 5.778975, "relative_strength": -6.636463, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.191001, "energy": 74.096226, "activity_lines": [ 7.629667, 7.198073, 6.845914, 6.795166 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.017, "volume": 5410, "typical_volume": 10577.4, "trend": 6.860267, "fair_value": 5.811677, "relative_strength": -7.307477, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.153907, "energy": 83.222107, "activity_lines": [ 7.780867, 7.4142, 6.96731, 6.869613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }