{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c82fe428-94a1-4ee3-936b-391bb6e42e92", "symbol": "603811", "name": "Zhejiang Cheng Yi Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.673, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.553, "architecture_energy": 38.326, "architecture_maturity": 11.908, "architecture_confidence": 91.075, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.79, "rotation_up": 18.82, "upward_expansion": 4.89, "deceleration": 48.11, "rotation_down": 53.62, "downward_expansion": 78.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.239333, 7.306608, 7.508235, 7.656085 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.43, "trend_reference": 7.811646, "distance_from_trend": -0.048856, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.562012, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.132275, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.725055, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.069046, "excess_performance": -0.025842, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.048856, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012817, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.132275, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144377, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087251, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052581, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.069046, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.976413, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23242922, "relative_activity": 0.633376, "balance": 0.976413, "dry_up": 0.823535, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070882, "annualized_volatility": 0.222546, "from_high_reference": -0.362541, "from_low_reference": 0.087848 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.811646, "fair_value_reference": 6.562012, "structural_low": 6.83, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.005159, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": 0.008998, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.158488, "worst_return": -0.1875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.01828, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.044987, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.341385, "worst_return": -0.239171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.001042, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.045822, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.391412, "worst_return": -0.308811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.43, "volume": 47935949, "typical_volume": 38354711.75, "trend": 7.827129, "fair_value": 6.579453, "relative_strength": -5.671827, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.597237, "energy": 30.331603, "activity_lines": [ 7.445655, 7.455812, 7.689366, 7.782645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.93, "volume": 34164346, "typical_volume": 38422304.45, "trend": 7.81018, "fair_value": 6.570403, "relative_strength": -12.784517, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.87438, "energy": 42.81583, "activity_lines": [ 7.272667, 7.349672, 7.602653, 7.724766 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.12, "volume": 15541496, "typical_volume": 37692517.5, "trend": 7.804373, "fair_value": 6.56486, "relative_strength": -10.468328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.921724, "energy": 48.820805, "activity_lines": [ 7.188667, 7.295315, 7.538518, 7.680238 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.43, "volume": 23242922, "typical_volume": 36696884.85, "trend": 7.811646, "fair_value": 6.562012, "relative_strength": -8.725055, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.552771, "energy": 38.325551, "activity_lines": [ 7.239333, 7.306608, 7.508235, 7.656085 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }