{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c82fe4b2-be13-48a5-bf2b-f780c21d9a0f", "symbol": "TZA", "name": "DIREXION DAILY SMALL CAP BEAR 3X ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.401, "architecture_energy": 52.109, "architecture_maturity": 92.199, "architecture_confidence": 79.248, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.0, "rotation_up": 29.35, "upward_expansion": 13.19, "deceleration": 59.51, "rotation_down": 43.26, "downward_expansion": 72.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.122, 40.192981, 42.690659, 47.328477 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 37.6, "trend_reference": 52.55318, "distance_from_trend": -0.284534, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 133.67341, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.718717, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.923316, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.357846, "excess_performance": -0.483471, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.284534, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170475, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.718717, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024585, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.479233, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034406, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.357846, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.745889, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24496257, "relative_activity": 0.026402, "balance": 0.745889, "dry_up": 0.133444, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120269, "annualized_volatility": 0.490135, "from_high_reference": -0.654068, "from_low_reference": 0.015804 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.55318, "fair_value_reference": 133.67341, "structural_low": 37.015, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.018025, "positive_rate": 0.432432, "directional_follow_through": 0.567568, "median_excess_return": -0.032017, "regime_survival": 0.783784, "best_return": 0.285991, "worst_return": -0.195812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.15195, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.194566, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.444693, "worst_return": -0.301003, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.168187, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.243316, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.061053, "worst_return": -0.421292, "sufficient": true 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.83, "volume": 17308616, "typical_volume": 1012291804.6, "trend": 54.36909, "fair_value": 135.95223, "relative_strength": -42.401008, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.885666, "energy": 53.824799, "activity_lines": [ 40.575333, 40.827921, 44.592269, 49.157393 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.8, "volume": 19943094, "typical_volume": 970128258.95, "trend": 53.379113, "fair_value": 134.863099, "relative_strength": -41.547688, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.240458, "energy": 44.158207, "activity_lines": [ 41.145333, 40.860734, 43.76865, 48.346484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.6, "volume": 24496257, "typical_volume": 927812474.05, "trend": 52.55318, "fair_value": 133.67341, "relative_strength": -47.923316, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.401364, "energy": 52.109218, "activity_lines": [ 40.122, 40.192981, 42.690659, 47.328477 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }