{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c83419a1-c49e-49c0-a5f0-910307ac8bc4", "symbol": "601800", "name": "China Communications Construction Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.913, "architecture_energy": 42.773, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.065, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.99, "rotation_up": 27.93, "upward_expansion": 20.85, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 35.95, "downward_expansion": 68.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.118376, 6.052284, 6.263296, 6.621352 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.06, "trend_reference": 7.120855, "distance_from_trend": -0.148979, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.285917, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.268639, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.725447, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.257353, "excess_performance": -0.214149, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.148979, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098619, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.268639, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070303, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.217254, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037241, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.257353, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.226791, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 198623398, "relative_activity": 1.187229, "balance": 1.226791, "dry_up": 1.305707, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049493, "annualized_volatility": 0.223752, "from_high_reference": -0.36377, "from_low_reference": 0.063457 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.120855, "fair_value_reference": 8.285917, "structural_low": 5.698399, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.010422, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.022029, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.451952, "worst_return": -0.12005, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.002675, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038928, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.447658, "worst_return": -0.257647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.037239, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.029129, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.341308, "worst_return": -0.252391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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6.362826, 6.753812 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.33, "volume": 201475340, "typical_volume": 169348610.0, "trend": 7.189679, "fair_value": 8.31, "relative_strength": -16.765901, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.536864, "energy": 52.726083, "activity_lines": [ 6.108201, 6.05966, 6.320751, 6.694235 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.06, "volume": 198623398, "typical_volume": 167299942.3, "trend": 7.120855, "fair_value": 8.285917, "relative_strength": -21.725447, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.912648, "energy": 42.772838, "activity_lines": [ 6.118376, 6.052284, 6.263296, 6.621352 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }