{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c8373886-d8fc-453c-9174-8c205750a4d6", "symbol": "AMEN", "name": "Aeternal Mentis, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 85.105, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 0.0, "architecture_energy": 0.0, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 57.146, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.18, "rotation_up": 29.0, "upward_expansion": 0.0, "deceleration": 49.0, "rotation_down": 29.0, "downward_expansion": 0.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.55, 8.55, 8.55, 8.55 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 8.55, "trend_reference": 8.55, "distance_from_trend": 0.0, "trend_direction": "Stable", "fair_value": 8.739103, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.021639, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.719638, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.124431, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.021639, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004643, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.147196, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038654, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": null, "dry_up": 0.833333, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025191, "annualized_volatility": 0.0, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.103226 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.55, "fair_value_reference": 8.739103, "structural_low": 8.15, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.024524, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.118876, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.199234, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.501287, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 9.05, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 9.05, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 9.05, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 9.05, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 9.05, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 9.05, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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8.755128, "relative_strength": -16.012728, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.0, "energy": 0.0, "activity_lines": [ 8.55, 8.55, 8.55, 8.55 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.55, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 5.25, "trend": 8.55, "fair_value": 8.751923, "relative_strength": -13.436922, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.0, "energy": 0.0, "activity_lines": [ 8.55, 8.55, 8.55, 8.55 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.55, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 5.25, "trend": 8.55, "fair_value": 8.748718, "relative_strength": -12.12964, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.0, "energy": 0.0, "activity_lines": [ 8.55, 8.55, 8.55, 8.55 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.55, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 5.0, "trend": 8.55, "fair_value": 8.745513, "relative_strength": -13.242582, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.0, "energy": 0.0, "activity_lines": [ 8.55, 8.55, 8.55, 8.55 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.55, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 5.0, "trend": 8.55, "fair_value": 8.742308, "relative_strength": -13.536892, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.0, "energy": 0.0, "activity_lines": [ 8.55, 8.55, 8.55, 8.55 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.55, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4.5, "trend": 8.55, "fair_value": 8.739103, "relative_strength": -14.719638, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.0, "energy": 0.0, "activity_lines": [ 8.55, 8.55, 8.55, 8.55 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }