{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c837e049-5020-4493-8f00-e6bee0e8bfe6", "symbol": "PVI", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II FLOATING RATE MUNICIPAL INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.753, "architecture_energy": 24.376, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 59.042, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.58, "rotation_up": 41.32, "upward_expansion": 72.84, "deceleration": 62.56, "rotation_down": 21.66, "downward_expansion": 1.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.818176, 24.814589, 24.791845, 24.765902 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.855, "trend_reference": 24.72495, "distance_from_trend": 0.00526, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.079944, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.032187, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.214587, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.011559, "excess_performance": -0.114066, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00526, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003435, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.032187, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000569, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102146, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004797, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011559, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.336173, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20557, "relative_activity": 0.513295, "balance": 4.336173, "dry_up": 1.032645, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006245, "annualized_volatility": 0.016507, "from_high_reference": -0.002768, "from_low_reference": 0.024884 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.72495, "fair_value_reference": 24.079944, "structural_low": 24.545377, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 54, "median_return": 0.001776, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.01896, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.00545, "worst_return": -0.003785, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.006658, "positive_rate": 0.9375, "directional_follow_through": 0.9375, "median_excess_return": -0.038062, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.010129, "worst_return": -4e-05, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.011887, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.079533, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.015267, "worst_return": 0.006354, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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24.822507, 24.80272, 24.764137, 24.732548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 24.78923, "volume": 16990, "typical_volume": 36952.85, "trend": 24.697472, "fair_value": 24.035557, "relative_strength": -9.453379, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.111364, "energy": 27.830755, "activity_lines": [ 24.813659, 24.804374, 24.769539, 24.738999 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.804202, "volume": 112966, "typical_volume": 42121.25, "trend": 24.706836, "fair_value": 24.046497, "relative_strength": -7.690216, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.895068, "energy": 25.75653, "activity_lines": [ 24.810773, 24.807134, 24.775421, 24.745885 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.76, "volume": 16371, "typical_volume": 40955.25, "trend": 24.710836, "fair_value": 24.057472, "relative_strength": -7.053012, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.816319, "energy": 17.613388, "activity_lines": [ 24.793128, 24.799793, 24.776249, 24.749315 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.83, "volume": 15532, "typical_volume": 40358.25, "trend": 24.717063, "fair_value": 24.068777, "relative_strength": -7.482791, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.934893, "energy": 17.406591, "activity_lines": [ 24.80168, 24.804975, 24.783078, 24.757003 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.855, "volume": 20557, "typical_volume": 40049.1, "trend": 24.72495, "fair_value": 24.079944, "relative_strength": -10.214587, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.752774, "energy": 24.376025, "activity_lines": [ 24.818176, 24.814589, 24.791845, 24.765902 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }