{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c8501ac1-4a03-4ea7-baa2-2d4774317750", "symbol": "TLRY", "name": "Tilray Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.414, "architecture_energy": 60.645, "architecture_maturity": 91.834, "architecture_confidence": 95.542, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.38, "rotation_up": 27.49, "upward_expansion": 11.57, "deceleration": 46.47, "rotation_down": 53.29, "downward_expansion": 84.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.378, 4.454, 4.869714, 5.352527 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.57, "trend_reference": 6.1165, "distance_from_trend": -0.252841, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.947397, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.647033, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -54.112043, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.397098, "excess_performance": -0.584551, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.252841, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.227142, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.647033, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040938, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.54112, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083051, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.397098, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.598988, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24383014, "relative_activity": 1.094852, "balance": 0.598988, "dry_up": 1.084336, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117275, "annualized_volatility": 0.427211, "from_high_reference": -0.803017, "from_low_reference": 0.245232 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.1165, "fair_value_reference": 12.947397, "structural_low": 3.67, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.057812, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.058501, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.455128, "worst_return": -0.379061, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.184695, "positive_rate": 0.294118, "directional_follow_through": 0.705882, "median_excess_return": -0.201868, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 1.164125, "worst_return": -0.572719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.395509, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.256869, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 2.05892, "worst_return": -0.711775, "sufficient": true }, 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"down", "direction": -71.953524, "energy": 62.021855, "activity_lines": [ 4.596, 4.812727, 5.365333, 5.927925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.3, "volume": 16231186, "typical_volume": 20190267.35, "trend": 6.6335, "fair_value": 13.325026, "relative_strength": -56.039011, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.055428, "energy": 62.037524, "activity_lines": [ 4.47, 4.685273, 5.21581, 5.762624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.88, "volume": 20509094, "typical_volume": 20438097.4, "trend": 6.442833, "fair_value": 13.204385, "relative_strength": -59.326249, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.172604, "energy": 88.125636, "activity_lines": [ 4.249333, 4.504364, 5.043286, 5.584978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.54, "volume": 35471966, "typical_volume": 21602761.3, "trend": 6.270167, "fair_value": 13.086051, "relative_strength": -52.424385, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.058766, "energy": 74.014804, "activity_lines": [ 4.305333, 4.469636, 4.949476, 5.462215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.57, "volume": 24383014, "typical_volume": 22270599.25, "trend": 6.1165, "fair_value": 12.947397, "relative_strength": -54.112043, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.414439, "energy": 60.64472, "activity_lines": [ 4.378, 4.454, 4.869714, 5.352527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }