{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c850ad8b-da83-4ddc-8b54-09070b644c4a", "symbol": "ESPJ", "name": "Invesco Markets II plc - Invesco MSCI Pacific Ex Japan Universal Screened UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 72.66, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 93.11, "architecture_energy": 97.101, "architecture_maturity": 8.747, "architecture_confidence": 65.924, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.4, "rotation_up": 87.28, "upward_expansion": 97.67, "deceleration": 41.83, "rotation_down": 8.01, "downward_expansion": 22.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.284, 59.184909, 58.569476, 58.309763 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 61.450001, "trend_reference": 58.007667, "distance_from_trend": 0.059343, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.609519, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.264156, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.392989, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.066655, "excess_performance": -0.016228, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059343, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028626, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.264156, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017913, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.01393, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05646, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.066655, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.707277, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2654, "relative_activity": 1.682889, "balance": 4.707277, "dry_up": 2.02324, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013119, "annualized_volatility": 0.151071, "from_high_reference": -0.002111, "from_low_reference": 0.187899 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.007667, "fair_value_reference": 48.609519, "structural_low": 54.650002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.001736, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.00128, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.05397, "worst_return": -0.058531, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.04083, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.000895, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.087999, "worst_return": -0.009217, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.050088, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.003984, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.072142, "worst_return": -0.0063, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 59.32, "volume": 2357, "typical_volume": 1449.4, "trend": 57.572, "fair_value": 48.353878, "relative_strength": -3.568065, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.421615, "energy": 67.83324, "activity_lines": [ 58.557334, 58.043636, 57.942762, 57.867398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.759998, "volume": 3187, "typical_volume": 1496.6, "trend": 57.781333, "fair_value": 48.476795, "relative_strength": -1.271971, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.093122, "energy": 88.859679, "activity_lines": [ 59.444, 58.578, 58.233286, 58.073075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.450001, "volume": 2654, "typical_volume": 1577.05, "trend": 58.007667, "fair_value": 48.609519, "relative_strength": -1.392989, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 93.11039, "energy": 97.10134, "activity_lines": [ 60.284, 59.184909, 58.569476, 58.309763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }