{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c855e3b1-1e6e-4052-904d-9d8c46beede1", "symbol": "BTF", "name": "COINSHARES BITCOIN AND ETHER ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.836, "architecture_energy": 24.299, "architecture_maturity": 79.557, "architecture_confidence": 76.654, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.56, "rotation_up": 27.21, "upward_expansion": 15.7, "deceleration": 46.79, "rotation_down": 23.79, "downward_expansion": 58.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.257267, 16.904344, 17.737758, 18.314207 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 17.3388, "trend_reference": 19.399992, "distance_from_trend": -0.106247, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.375919, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.258262, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.85961, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.102579, "excess_performance": -0.290033, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.106247, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14643, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.258262, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202599, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.388596, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047548, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.102579, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.822073, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24049, "relative_activity": 0.800133, "balance": 0.822073, "dry_up": 0.725523, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085355, "annualized_volatility": 0.421419, "from_high_reference": -0.555103, "from_low_reference": 0.15592 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.399992, "fair_value_reference": 23.375919, "structural_low": 15.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.056908, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.230769, "median_excess_return": 0.036788, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.409091, "worst_return": -0.248133, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.49049, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.399878, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.830027, "worst_return": -0.299219, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.520929, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.321129, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.197885, "worst_return": -0.395445, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.498032, "energy": 59.584224, "activity_lines": [ 16.361293, 16.93379, 18.311844, 19.061927 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.26, "volume": 20211, "typical_volume": 40435.05, "trend": 20.318636, "fair_value": 23.284943, "relative_strength": -39.735358, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.267464, "energy": 52.414749, "activity_lines": [ 16.684007, 16.816875, 18.158176, 18.845421 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.325, "volume": 29733, "typical_volume": 38457.2, "trend": 20.036187, "fair_value": 23.315106, "relative_strength": -37.561849, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.354435, "energy": 37.276765, "activity_lines": [ 16.968667, 16.792198, 18.014433, 18.652283 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.17, "volume": 13233, "typical_volume": 36728.15, "trend": 19.712793, "fair_value": 23.345485, "relative_strength": -37.493256, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.463554, "energy": 28.986054, "activity_lines": [ 17.1437, 16.808147, 17.862209, 18.467368 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.3388, "volume": 24049, "typical_volume": 30056.25, "trend": 19.399992, "fair_value": 23.375919, "relative_strength": -38.85961, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.836242, "energy": 24.298975, "activity_lines": [ 17.257267, 16.904344, 17.737758, 18.314207 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }