{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c856318d-c900-4c43-a223-1bb86bf78b02", "symbol": "QS9", "name": "Global Invacom Group Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.623, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.932, "architecture_energy": 81.118, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.306, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.99, "rotation_up": 12.13, "upward_expansion": 18.79, "deceleration": 38.08, "rotation_down": 78.46, "downward_expansion": 96.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0468, 0.049836, 0.059838, 0.062185 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.044, "trend_reference": 0.0623, "distance_from_trend": -0.29374, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.041744, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.054054, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.748196, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.043478, "excess_performance": -0.198313, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.29374, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033167, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.054054, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.173802, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.297482, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.221611, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.043478, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.414624, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4601400, "relative_activity": 0.222225, "balance": 0.414624, "dry_up": 0.198897, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.181818, "annualized_volatility": 0.676992, "from_high_reference": -0.546392, "from_low_reference": 1.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0623, "fair_value_reference": 0.041744, "structural_low": 0.043, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.104212, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.107009, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.071429, "worst_return": -0.126984, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.220534, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.211943, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.079365, "worst_return": -0.361702, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.366093, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.418981, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.349206, "worst_return": -0.382979, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.448666, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.53952, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.301587, "worst_return": -0.595745, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.306122, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.017857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065217, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106383, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.325, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.352941, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.234043, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.210526, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.267606, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102041, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.035, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 319530.0, "trend": 0.0413, "fair_value": 0.073474, "relative_strength": -25.762348, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.371535, 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"fair_value": 0.041513, "relative_strength": -21.121633, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.682609, "energy": 69.658958, "activity_lines": [ 0.05, 0.057164, 0.065781, 0.065232 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.049, "volume": 5499000, "typical_volume": 23873690.0, "trend": 0.0628, "fair_value": 0.041603, "relative_strength": -19.342383, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.287456, "energy": 71.616777, "activity_lines": [ 0.049133, 0.054564, 0.063948, 0.064335 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.048, "volume": 2707000, "typical_volume": 22355205.0, "trend": 0.062533, "fair_value": 0.041686, "relative_strength": -22.064149, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.114377, "energy": 70.245312, "activity_lines": [ 0.048467, 0.052327, 0.062062, 0.063381 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.044, "volume": 4601400, "typical_volume": 20706020.0, "trend": 0.0623, "fair_value": 0.041744, "relative_strength": -29.748196, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.931734, "energy": 81.118297, "activity_lines": [ 0.0468, 0.049836, 0.059838, 0.062185 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }