{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c8574441-1805-4972-98f3-934f830cea0c", "symbol": "URAM", "name": "SG ETN URANIUM MINING", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.924, "architecture_energy": 70.063, "architecture_maturity": 27.882, "architecture_confidence": 92.556, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.66, "rotation_up": 16.6, "upward_expansion": 14.82, "deceleration": 42.42, "rotation_down": 69.2, "downward_expansion": 90.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.788333, 35.885636, 38.384405, 40.605785 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 36.25, "trend_reference": 43.860834, "distance_from_trend": -0.173522, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.935719, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.008746, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.92755, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.21875, "excess_performance": -0.389642, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.173522, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019033, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.008746, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.290977, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.259276, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.259704, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.21875, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.416355, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 759, "relative_activity": 0.485947, "balance": 0.416355, "dry_up": 1.564281, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084446, "annualized_volatility": 0.469602, "from_high_reference": -0.409032, "from_low_reference": 0.272376 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.860834, "fair_value_reference": 35.935719, "structural_low": 31.530001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.008298, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.02391, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.396034, "worst_return": -0.144159, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.200123, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.157967, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.222802, "worst_return": 0.177443, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.344186, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.210626, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.52597, "worst_return": 0.162402, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"fair_value": 35.710687, "relative_strength": -28.377272, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.236941, "energy": 86.011352, "activity_lines": [ 36.659334, 37.760364, 40.431738, 42.528054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.959999, "volume": 2059, "typical_volume": 1397.85, "trend": 44.534834, "fair_value": 35.793924, "relative_strength": -26.204861, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.502089, "energy": 81.868003, "activity_lines": [ 35.812333, 37.087182, 39.726262, 41.898086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.474998, "volume": 5606, "typical_volume": 1574.3, "trend": 44.220834, "fair_value": 35.857866, "relative_strength": -31.803581, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.81239, "energy": 87.465593, "activity_lines": [ 34.526333, 36.075363, 38.840333, 41.120032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.25, "volume": 759, "typical_volume": 1561.9, "trend": 43.860834, "fair_value": 35.935719, "relative_strength": -25.92755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.923534, "energy": 70.062782, "activity_lines": [ 34.788333, 35.885636, 38.384405, 40.605785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }