{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "c85e7de1-d9aa-4ccd-9ced-a4dd7772f284",
    "symbol": "ALVDM",
    "name": "Voyageurs du Monde SA",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 89.972,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 71.009,
    "architecture_energy": 89.773,
    "architecture_maturity": 17.725,
    "architecture_confidence": 80.546,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 10.95,
        "rotation_up": 84.97,
        "upward_expansion": 100.0,
        "deceleration": 39.0,
        "rotation_down": 8.01,
        "downward_expansion": 22.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        178.233333,
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        151.167344
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 178.5,
    "trend_reference": 149.177221,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.196563,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 142.586828,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.251869,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 5.896525,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.19,
    "excess_performance": 0.136689,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.196563,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.01594,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.251869,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.30554,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.058965,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.251814,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.19,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 13.611158,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 11111,
      "relative_activity": 0.974923,
      "balance": 13.611158,
      "dry_up": 1.422132,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.035448,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.37195,
      "from_high_reference": -0.008333,
      "from_low_reference": 0.429088
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 149.177221,
      "fair_value_reference": 142.586828,
      "structural_low": 124.904861,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 24,
        "median_return": 6e-06,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.000586,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.140909,
        "worst_return": -0.113924,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
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        "regime_survival": 0.6,
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        "worst_return": -0.058503,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
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        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
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        "regime_survival": 0.5,
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        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.17775,
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "trend": 156.508692,
        "fair_value": 139.461654,
        "relative_strength": -22.640538,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -76.098397,
        "energy": 58.113611,
        "activity_lines": [
          132.367223,
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          142.871047,
          149.068876
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 132.055893,
        "volume": 3309,
        "typical_volume": 4549.5,
        "trend": 155.177222,
        "fair_value": 139.545425,
        "relative_strength": -19.28483,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -63.103836,
        "energy": 59.460861,
        "activity_lines": [
          131.635136,
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          141.163223,
          147.491276
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 131.579163,
        "volume": 2924,
        "typical_volume": 4663.4,
        "trend": 153.679861,
        "fair_value": 139.635257,
        "relative_strength": -17.747819,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -61.639888,
        "energy": 61.892837,
        "activity_lines": [
          131.00708,
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          139.585921,
          145.968821
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 140.160416,
        "volume": 4103,
        "typical_volume": 4805.4,
        "trend": 152.585208,
        "fair_value": 139.77098,
        "relative_strength": -13.912062,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -58.400191,
        "energy": 45.969194,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 138.253464,
        "volume": 2602,
        "typical_volume": 4825.9,
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        "relative_strength": -15.395748,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -42.781151,
        "energy": 30.967394,
        "activity_lines": [
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          138.344615,
          144.17197
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 139.20694,
        "volume": 309,
        "typical_volume": 4596.25,
        "trend": 150.833888,
        "fair_value": 140.054478,
        "relative_strength": -14.821887,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -37.434481,
        "energy": 23.450155,
        "activity_lines": [
          137.649602,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 137.300003,
        "volume": 396,
        "typical_volume": 4523.8,
        "trend": 150.043888,
        "fair_value": 140.193137,
        "relative_strength": -16.926723,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -32.20124,
        "energy": 24.576434,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 4361.2,
        "trend": 149.343888,
        "fair_value": 140.327465,
        "relative_strength": -15.163675,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -29.728022,
        "energy": 20.353679,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 146.0,
        "volume": 604,
        "typical_volume": 4107.9,
        "trend": 148.493888,
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        "relative_strength": -11.064798,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": 1.473639,
        "energy": 12.32,
        "activity_lines": [
          141.371157,
          138.816034,
          137.978801,
          141.668204
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 145.0,
        "volume": 274,
        "typical_volume": 3742.0,
        "trend": 147.393888,
        "fair_value": 140.682028,
        "relative_strength": -12.541791,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": 0.962758,
        "energy": 15.696331,
        "activity_lines": [
          142.953796,
          140.398395,
          138.484436,
          141.442792
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 178.0,
        "volume": 124061,
        "typical_volume": 9095.65,
        "trend": 147.593888,
        "fair_value": 141.056739,
        "relative_strength": 9.655444,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 55.711767,
        "energy": 71.159197,
        "activity_lines": [
          155.086667,
          147.728073,
          142.156738,
          143.417379
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 177.5,
        "volume": 6763,
        "typical_volume": 9171.9,
        "trend": 147.877221,
        "fair_value": 141.434476,
        "relative_strength": 9.536085,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 66.195983,
        "energy": 87.489177,
        "activity_lines": [
          164.466667,
          154.036148,
          145.645706,
          145.346806
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 178.0,
        "volume": 36296,
        "typical_volume": 10626.7,
        "trend": 148.243888,
        "fair_value": 141.806073,
        "relative_strength": 9.563708,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 60.343388,
        "energy": 85.935496,
        "activity_lines": [
          171.333333,
          159.608876,
          149.094199,
          147.290211
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 178.5,
        "volume": 10661,
        "typical_volume": 10969.95,
        "trend": 148.660555,
        "fair_value": 142.193335,
        "relative_strength": 8.278708,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.227862,
        "energy": 92.690612,
        "activity_lines": [
          175.866667,
          164.428497,
          152.428405,
          149.242218
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 178.5,
        "volume": 11111,
        "typical_volume": 11396.8,
        "trend": 149.177221,
        "fair_value": 142.586828,
        "relative_strength": 5.896525,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.008627,
        "energy": 89.772682,
        "activity_lines": [
          178.233333,
          168.551035,
          155.576897,
          151.167344
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}