{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c8612985-30b4-4cb4-a4b3-a00c0792fae3", "symbol": "SEA", "name": "ETF SERIES SOLUTIONS US GLOBAL SEA TO SKY CARGO ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.392, "architecture_energy": 78.083, "architecture_maturity": 10.554, "architecture_confidence": 78.95, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.22, "rotation_up": 78.6, "upward_expansion": 93.35, "deceleration": 41.88, "rotation_down": 11.02, "downward_expansion": 20.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.229287, 17.755155, 17.507171, 17.304083 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.2999, "trend_reference": 16.914147, "distance_from_trend": 0.081929, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.479289, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.357631, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.71151, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.143744, "excess_performance": 0.018119, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081929, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069687, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.357631, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013865, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.047115, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033108, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.143744, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.452561, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24128, "relative_activity": 0.338954, "balance": 3.452561, "dry_up": 0.490962, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035249, "annualized_volatility": 0.176244, "from_high_reference": -0.016134, "from_low_reference": 0.460256 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.914147, "fair_value_reference": 13.479289, "structural_low": 15.98, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.0063, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": -0.026709, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.127268, "worst_return": -0.087313, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.017258, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.030512, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.136111, "worst_return": -0.149643, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.041379, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.042812, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.241279, "worst_return": -0.173194, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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16.785657 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 16.7455, "volume": 38061, "typical_volume": 93994.35, "trend": 16.304354, "fair_value": 13.259145, "relative_strength": 0.443418, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.625643, "energy": 13.181357, "activity_lines": [ 16.804813, 16.99246, 17.05871, 16.819531 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.31, "volume": 366615, "typical_volume": 110521.7, "trend": 16.409569, "fair_value": 13.299127, "relative_strength": 2.332107, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.470761, "energy": 17.691932, "activity_lines": [ 16.925507, 17.022173, 17.088187, 16.884412 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.7216, "volume": 46502, "typical_volume": 104798.2, "trend": 16.525223, "fair_value": 13.341686, "relative_strength": 6.1973, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.76514, "energy": 22.085809, "activity_lines": [ 17.179393, 17.129384, 17.154434, 16.969059 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.305, "volume": 32046, "typical_volume": 81482.65, "trend": 16.656553, "fair_value": 13.385941, "relative_strength": 10.086876, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.156696, "energy": 61.010232, "activity_lines": [ 17.61754, 17.342729, 17.272683, 17.083883 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.5679, "volume": 37118, "typical_volume": 73481.0, "trend": 16.79815, "fair_value": 13.433103, "relative_strength": 10.152542, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.09576, "energy": 78.610089, "activity_lines": [ 18.03932, 17.584158, 17.408612, 17.207196 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.2999, "volume": 24128, "typical_volume": 71183.65, "trend": 16.914147, "fair_value": 13.479289, "relative_strength": 4.71151, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.392443, "energy": 78.083333, "activity_lines": [ 18.229287, 17.755155, 17.507171, 17.304083 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }