{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c861b060-67ea-4f5b-9853-cc0a846f9fde", "symbol": "PFAE", "name": "PICTON Long Short Equity (130/30) Alternative Fund ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.591, "architecture_energy": 68.336, "architecture_maturity": 59.43, "architecture_confidence": 86.769, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.65, "rotation_up": 57.84, "upward_expansion": 85.23, "deceleration": 61.03, "rotation_down": 28.2, "downward_expansion": 11.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.556001, 29.453273, 28.981095, 28.461764 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 30.110001, "trend_reference": 27.868, "distance_from_trend": 0.080451, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.296858, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.350415, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.458654, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.137944, "excess_performance": 0.017523, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080451, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044691, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.350415, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057141, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004587, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012394, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.137944, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.930493, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68800, "relative_activity": 2.109459, "balance": 1.930493, "dry_up": 1.051663, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016657, "annualized_volatility": 0.142586, "from_high_reference": -0.005614, "from_low_reference": 0.30733 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.868, "fair_value_reference": 22.296858, "structural_low": 25.129999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.021014, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.000755, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 0.061868, "worst_return": -0.024074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.051039, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.00721, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.122954, "worst_return": 0.019466, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.147963, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.005888, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.16272, "worst_return": 0.133206, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.364972, "energy": 78.369816, "activity_lines": [ 29.359334, 29.163637, 28.545571, 28.091226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.440001, "volume": 28200, "typical_volume": 32425.0, "trend": 27.662667, "fair_value": 22.187996, "relative_strength": 0.972786, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.031446, "energy": 68.525705, "activity_lines": [ 29.389334, 29.262728, 28.690857, 28.212387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.18, "volume": 26500, "typical_volume": 31895.0, "trend": 27.762, "fair_value": 22.239408, "relative_strength": 0.53067, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.127576, "energy": 53.84061, "activity_lines": [ 29.313334, 29.282546, 28.798429, 28.31028 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.110001, "volume": 68800, "typical_volume": 32615.0, "trend": 27.868, "fair_value": 22.296858, "relative_strength": 0.458654, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.59064, "energy": 68.336238, "activity_lines": [ 29.556001, 29.453273, 28.981095, 28.461764 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }