{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c86707d2-d953-4a29-bb93-188d1f5e1609", "symbol": "TTD", "name": "The Trade Desk, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -93.487, "architecture_energy": 78.418, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.749, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.37, "rotation_up": 14.85, "upward_expansion": 13.66, "deceleration": 46.25, "rotation_down": 78.78, "downward_expansion": 89.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 289.586667, 306.917454, 332.893237, 356.957677 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 237.360001, "trend_reference": 399.905667, "distance_from_trend": -0.40646, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1280.435064, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.814626, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -60.935814, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.491092, "excess_performance": -0.436425, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.40646, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.247657, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.814626, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098371, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.609358, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007009, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.491092, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.073124, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29825, "relative_activity": 7.187093, "balance": 0.073124, "dry_up": 2.021362, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.130441, "annualized_volatility": 0.644528, "from_high_reference": -0.775014, "from_low_reference": 0.010043 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 399.905667, "fair_value_reference": 1280.435064, "structural_low": 235.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.025701, "positive_rate": 0.37037, "directional_follow_through": 0.62963, "median_excess_return": -0.032504, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.363014, "worst_return": -0.321203, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.203349, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.128915, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.363786, "worst_return": -0.351938, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.004777, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.161578, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.592814, "worst_return": -0.423445, 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-0.043077, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068182, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.736697, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066509, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.200523, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.234637, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005131, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.063333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003097, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.755299, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1219.0, "volume": 14, "typical_volume": 538.2, "trend": 1190.704334, "fair_value": 1323.69176, "relative_strength": 5.226442, "stage": 2, "regime": 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66.700615, "activity_lines": [ 320.866667, 329.04309, 350.043713, 375.705677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 313.0, "volume": 1863, "typical_volume": 2714.05, "trend": 414.460333, "fair_value": 1287.298141, "relative_strength": -49.960855, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.462432, "energy": 58.393397, "activity_lines": [ 317.6, 324.211272, 344.667999, 368.383505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 237.360001, "volume": 29825, "typical_volume": 4149.8, "trend": 399.905667, "fair_value": 1280.435064, "relative_strength": -60.935814, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -93.486948, "energy": 78.417897, "activity_lines": [ 289.586667, 306.917454, 332.893237, 356.957677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }