{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c86ae03a-3fb6-4219-ba36-859b613c5197", "symbol": "688616", "name": "Hangzhou Xili Intelligent Technology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.657, "architecture_energy": 58.421, "architecture_maturity": 42.264, "architecture_confidence": 95.577, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.55, "rotation_up": 23.18, "upward_expansion": 10.37, "deceleration": 58.12, "rotation_down": 55.22, "downward_expansion": 81.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.054667, 10.202827, 11.127425, 11.783844 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.51, "trend_reference": 12.48346, "distance_from_trend": -0.158086, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.796792, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.026563, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.656342, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.213912, "excess_performance": -0.170708, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.158086, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053037, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.026563, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.353842, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.166563, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167147, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.213912, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.253196, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9685572, "relative_activity": 1.002712, "balance": 0.253196, "dry_up": 1.054554, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086508, "annualized_volatility": 0.349102, "from_high_reference": -0.328435, "from_low_reference": 0.154945 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.48346, "fair_value_reference": 10.796792, "structural_low": 9.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.088145, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.037222, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.33564, "worst_return": -0.091856, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.249231, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.22128, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.612188, "worst_return": 0.108749, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.029508, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.079598, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.614958, "worst_return": -0.161079, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 10.216, 10.723089, 11.783813, 12.292793 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.39, "volume": 12196332, "typical_volume": 11440777.5, "trend": 12.612793, "fair_value": 10.793734, "relative_strength": -24.11904, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.250384, "energy": 79.295711, "activity_lines": [ 9.902, 10.368777, 11.483842, 12.078914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.07, "volume": 9598098, "typical_volume": 10084503.45, "trend": 12.540793, "fair_value": 10.792995, "relative_strength": -18.472717, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.42229, "energy": 66.25867, "activity_lines": [ 9.904, 10.214495, 11.273967, 11.914863 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.51, "volume": 9685572, "typical_volume": 9659372.4, "trend": 12.48346, "fair_value": 10.796792, "relative_strength": -16.656342, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.656682, "energy": 58.421046, "activity_lines": [ 10.054667, 10.202827, 11.127425, 11.783844 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }