{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "c87263c1-4a50-4e9d-bfb7-657c1e025889",
    "symbol": "OBXD",
    "name": "DNB OBX ETF",
    "exchange": "OSL",
    "country": "NO",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 94.272,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 49.33,
    "architecture_energy": 36.56,
    "architecture_maturity": 34.44,
    "architecture_confidence": 57.694,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 33.83,
        "rotation_up": 64.43,
        "upward_expansion": 67.56,
        "deceleration": 64.09,
        "rotation_down": 12.77,
        "downward_expansion": 13.22
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        181.825335,
        179.63309,
        180.287332,
        179.601375
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 183.960007,
    "trend_reference": 176.340666,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.043208,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 137.364789,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.339208,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 0.802108,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.12445,
    "excess_performance": -0.000544,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.043208,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.066723,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.339208,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.028312,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.008021,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.007185,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.12445,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.545377,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 125171,
      "relative_activity": 0.940617,
      "balance": 2.545377,
      "dry_up": 0.73303,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.025808,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.138618,
      "from_high_reference": -0.055065,
      "from_low_reference": 0.314939
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 176.340666,
      "fair_value_reference": 137.364789,
      "structural_low": 163.279999,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.012513,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.000353,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.06119,
        "worst_return": -0.010565,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.032935,
        "positive_rate": 0.777778,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.777778,
        "median_excess_return": 0.00153,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.139082,
        "worst_return": -0.024094,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.060138,
        "positive_rate": 0.857143,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.857143,
        "median_excess_return": 0.010284,
        "regime_survival": 0.142857,
        "best_return": 0.276912,
        "worst_return": -0.010095,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.158258,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.0211,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.271847,
        "worst_return": 0.118396,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-12-27",
        "end": "2025-01-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.060179,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-24",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.022259,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.033216,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.07013,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.038344,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.026272,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-11-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.019611,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.019295,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2026-01-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.019595,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-05-08",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "return": 0.068417,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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        "typical_volume": 222315.75,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 219142.95,
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        "fair_value": 131.142482,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 218164.6,
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        "fair_value": 131.649918,
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        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "energy": 48.696722,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 240015.4,
        "trend": 163.996,
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        "relative_strength": 1.292592,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "volume": 226976,
        "typical_volume": 241519.05,
        "trend": 165.310666,
        "fair_value": 132.677995,
        "relative_strength": 1.537197,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "trend": 166.665333,
        "fair_value": 133.173636,
        "relative_strength": 1.585478,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 217813.65,
        "trend": 167.927999,
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        "relative_strength": 1.364569,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 186394.9,
        "trend": 170.113999,
        "fair_value": 134.565431,
        "relative_strength": 0.780615,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 14.284567,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 173601.6,
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        "fair_value": 135.028636,
        "relative_strength": 0.646426,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 38070,
        "typical_volume": 165263.05,
        "trend": 172.103999,
        "fair_value": 135.473892,
        "relative_strength": 0.535997,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -4.480498,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 177.399994,
        "volume": 88540,
        "typical_volume": 162283.0,
        "trend": 173.083999,
        "fair_value": 135.925687,
        "relative_strength": 0.727313,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -0.544691,
        "energy": 22.27196,
        "activity_lines": [
          175.709329,
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          177.893503
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 181.979996,
        "volume": 98635,
        "typical_volume": 151755.3,
        "trend": 174.166666,
        "fair_value": 136.405687,
        "relative_strength": 0.704939,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 20.916582,
        "energy": 12.503252,
        "activity_lines": [
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          178.467439
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 183.020004,
        "volume": 77841,
        "typical_volume": 135549.8,
        "trend": 175.237333,
        "fair_value": 136.886841,
        "relative_strength": 0.715928,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.519511,
        "energy": 24.531783,
        "activity_lines": [
          180.045332,
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          180.012855,
          179.038622
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 183.960007,
        "volume": 125171,
        "typical_volume": 133073.35,
        "trend": 176.340666,
        "fair_value": 137.364789,
        "relative_strength": 0.802108,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.330112,
        "energy": 36.560317,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}