{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c87cf1ed-1774-4104-9f04-d0498ba65904", "symbol": "HOND34", "name": "Honda Motor Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 69.307, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 62.726, "architecture_energy": 78.2, "architecture_maturity": 21.982, "architecture_confidence": 69.091, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.37, "rotation_up": 78.78, "upward_expansion": 66.74, "deceleration": 21.54, "rotation_down": 16.83, "downward_expansion": 25.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 152.622002, 147.840183, 140.874429, 139.002944 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 161.610001, "trend_reference": 140.558176, "distance_from_trend": 0.149773, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 154.580336, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.045476, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.782751, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.028281, "excess_performance": 0.028767, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.149773, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034931, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.045476, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.266133, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.017828, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.37523, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.028281, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.196762, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 195, "relative_activity": 0.47561, "balance": 1.196762, "dry_up": 0.473171, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04458, "annualized_volatility": 0.306116, "from_high_reference": -0.115284, "from_low_reference": 0.3827 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 140.558176, "fair_value_reference": 154.580336, "structural_low": 116.879997, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.009178, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.052622, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.128404, "worst_return": -0.08497, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.026537, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.032879, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.081082, "worst_return": 0.002632, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.00861, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.011866, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.170041, "worst_return": -0.02955, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 514.7, "trend": 141.859449, "fair_value": 154.192551, "relative_strength": -15.289458, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 13.585922, "energy": 46.524728, "activity_lines": [ 141.515999, 138.741999, 133.800788, 136.360553 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 146.580002, "volume": 17, "typical_volume": 504.05, "trend": 141.306571, "fair_value": 154.27465, "relative_strength": -10.56615, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.963025, "energy": 64.75195, "activity_lines": [ 143.823334, 140.693818, 135.129214, 136.665105 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 143.5, "volume": 132, "typical_volume": 483.15, "trend": 140.678719, "fair_value": 154.32607, "relative_strength": -11.741378, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.789206, "energy": 58.009267, "activity_lines": [ 144.273334, 141.600181, 136.191068, 136.806616 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 153.600006, "volume": 432, "typical_volume": 429.25, "trend": 140.488205, "fair_value": 154.443961, "relative_strength": -6.865906, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 56.823113, "energy": 62.614256, "activity_lines": [ 147.622002, 144.178183, 138.197519, 137.640248 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 161.610001, "volume": 195, "typical_volume": 410.0, "trend": 140.558176, "fair_value": 154.580336, "relative_strength": 1.782751, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 62.725562, "energy": 78.200364, "activity_lines": [ 152.622002, 147.840183, 140.874429, 139.002944 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }