{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c8841441-9f4c-42c6-beeb-3a221c98daf0", "symbol": "OND", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST ON-DEMAND ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -4.953, "architecture_energy": 4.413, "architecture_maturity": 12.815, "architecture_confidence": 57.824, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.36, "rotation_up": 25.36, "upward_expansion": 22.88, "deceleration": 39.56, "rotation_down": 24.58, "downward_expansion": 50.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.757273, 34.536855, 34.579987, 34.682443 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 36.2251, "trend_reference": 35.33769, "distance_from_trend": 0.025112, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.293428, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.088056, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.981259, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.025961, "excess_performance": -0.151586, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025112, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067181, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.088056, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007535, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.179813, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060251, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.025961, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.539259, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 749, "relative_activity": 0.421817, "balance": 0.539259, "dry_up": 0.294962, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031839, "annualized_volatility": 0.223714, "from_high_reference": -0.260712, "from_low_reference": 0.120764 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.33769, "fair_value_reference": 33.293428, "structural_low": 32.3218, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.042125, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.012658, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.052587, "worst_return": 0.033357, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.187322, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.088931, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.270404, "worst_return": 0.10424, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.242582, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.113061, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.429776, "worst_return": 0.055388, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 33.085479, "relative_strength": -21.82252, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.387639, "energy": 33.393264, "activity_lines": [ 34.39242, 34.414515, 34.517797, 34.904516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.9941, "volume": 547, "typical_volume": 2010.25, "trend": 35.740787, "fair_value": 33.138157, "relative_strength": -22.967479, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.333601, "energy": 41.324975, "activity_lines": [ 33.927787, 34.137653, 34.378878, 34.709061 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.6088, "volume": 438, "typical_volume": 1874.9, "trend": 35.50568, "fair_value": 33.206973, "relative_strength": -19.488534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.865491, "energy": 29.955152, "activity_lines": [ 34.110133, 34.1847, 34.403111, 34.636029 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.2251, "volume": 749, "typical_volume": 1775.65, "trend": 35.33769, "fair_value": 33.293428, "relative_strength": -17.981259, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.953165, "energy": 4.413027, "activity_lines": [ 34.757273, 34.536855, 34.579987, 34.682443 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }