{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c886d30f-3a75-4284-8ea7-b6f19df34050", "symbol": "SCCC", "name": "Siam City Cement Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.917, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 90.579, "architecture_energy": 78.2, "architecture_maturity": 28.265, "architecture_confidence": 60.441, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 2.77, "rotation_up": 82.74, "upward_expansion": 92.35, "deceleration": 45.83, "rotation_down": 12.15, "downward_expansion": 14.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 150.566667, 148.918182, 146.530952, 144.87245 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 154.0, "trend_reference": 142.815766, "distance_from_trend": 0.078312, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 132.148221, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.165358, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.62986, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.114796, "excess_performance": -0.077529, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.078312, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030092, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.165358, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086479, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.056299, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079873, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.114796, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.541601, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 660700, "relative_activity": 2.547228, "balance": 3.541601, "dry_up": 1.441418, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018482, "annualized_volatility": 0.104573, "from_high_reference": -0.012821, "from_low_reference": 0.162916 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 142.815766, "fair_value_reference": 132.148221, "structural_low": 138.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.008435, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.018374, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.050157, "worst_return": -0.054546, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.01476, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.012344, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.190374, "worst_return": -0.104185, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.022013, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.136319, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.207944, "worst_return": -0.045008, "sufficient": false 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.016949, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040134, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016556, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043771, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007042, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.175669, "energy": 76.439275, "activity_lines": [ 145.6, 144.636364, 142.801721, 141.736233 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 146.5, "volume": 63800, "typical_volume": 561720.0, "trend": 140.459911, "fair_value": 130.99373, "relative_strength": -11.988751, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.462181, "energy": 58.894897, "activity_lines": [ 145.8, 145.209091, 143.236068, 142.149012 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 148.5, "volume": 354800, "typical_volume": 534715.0, "trend": 140.900451, "fair_value": 131.216295, "relative_strength": -10.852008, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.452409, "energy": 63.463482, "activity_lines": [ 146.7, 146.009091, 143.830164, 142.667728 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 148.5, "volume": 307100, "typical_volume": 405880.0, "trend": 141.35687, "fair_value": 131.441493, "relative_strength": -11.417401, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.795905, "energy": 64.782775, "activity_lines": [ 147.466667, 146.645455, 144.397619, 143.158021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 149.0, "volume": 279200, "typical_volume": 262690.0, "trend": 141.814077, "fair_value": 131.66463, "relative_strength": -10.973408, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.682415, "energy": 69.164234, "activity_lines": [ 148.266667, 147.209091, 144.992857, 143.651126 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 149.0, "volume": 248500, "typical_volume": 247770.0, "trend": 142.255406, "fair_value": 131.887767, "relative_strength": -9.58847, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.02746, "energy": 72.320332, "activity_lines": [ 148.666667, 147.663636, 145.547619, 144.114734 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 154.0, "volume": 660700, "typical_volume": 259380.0, "trend": 142.815766, "fair_value": 132.148221, "relative_strength": -5.62986, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.578614, "energy": 78.199981, "activity_lines": [ 150.566667, 148.918182, 146.530952, 144.87245 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }