{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c8879370-a6ac-4248-9888-0e6504cd1bfe", "symbol": "KTA", "name": "Krakatoa Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -8.786, "architecture_energy": 17.052, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 49.894, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.02, "rotation_up": 41.46, "upward_expansion": 34.93, "deceleration": 43.25, "rotation_down": 19.26, "downward_expansion": 43.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.006433, 0.005991, 0.005971, 0.006254 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.006, "trend_reference": 0.007, "distance_from_trend": -0.142857, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.013378, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.551509, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -38.15727, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.25, "excess_performance": -0.313706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.142857, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.201521, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.551509, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021273, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.381573, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003025, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.77832, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5306285, "relative_activity": 0.443783, "balance": 1.77832, "dry_up": 1.479791, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.173077, "annualized_volatility": 1.038591, "from_high_reference": -0.7, "from_low_reference": 0.5 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.007, "fair_value_reference": 0.013378, "structural_low": 0.004, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.034355, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.527778, "median_excess_return": -0.048379, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 1.529412, "worst_return": -0.275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.025365, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 1.44898, "worst_return": -0.386364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.045455, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.064121, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.454545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"amber", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.487179, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.205882, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.545455, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.34375, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { 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0.00725, "fair_value": 0.013654, "relative_strength": -30.855855, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.248262, "energy": 17.619054, "activity_lines": [ 0.006, 0.0057, 0.00591, 0.006344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.007, "volume": 33074859, "typical_volume": 12325901.0, "trend": 0.00715, "fair_value": 0.013519, "relative_strength": -26.433951, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.449744, "energy": 21.203057, "activity_lines": [ 0.006467, 0.005945, 0.005988, 0.006328 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.006, "volume": 5306285, "typical_volume": 11956933.25, "trend": 0.007, "fair_value": 0.013378, "relative_strength": -38.15727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.785984, "energy": 17.052096, "activity_lines": [ 0.006433, 0.005991, 0.005971, 0.006254 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }