{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c892e2bd-3191-44ec-a797-6d6f088c04e0", "symbol": "ARGT", "name": "GLOBAL X FDS MSCI ARGENTINA ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 87.966, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.511, "architecture_energy": 17.167, "architecture_maturity": 31.527, "architecture_confidence": 70.138, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.74, "rotation_up": 34.56, "upward_expansion": 65.37, "deceleration": 85.08, "rotation_down": 26.65, "downward_expansion": 10.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 93.596667, 93.517874, 93.024691, 92.404556 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 92.96, "trend_reference": 92.187111, "distance_from_trend": 0.008384, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 72.653672, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.279495, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.902405, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.002147, "excess_performance": -0.127772, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008384, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011319, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.279495, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022861, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.059024, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021821, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002147, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.896101, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 665559, "relative_activity": 0.574756, "balance": 0.896101, "dry_up": 0.526472, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058097, "annualized_volatility": 0.275618, "from_high_reference": -0.105895, "from_low_reference": 0.408819 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 92.187111, "fair_value_reference": 72.653672, "structural_low": 83.46, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.023466, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.010317, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.081222, "worst_return": -0.152073, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.042505, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.002744, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.256417, "worst_return": -0.19381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.177628, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.054528, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.316375, "worst_return": -0.042151, 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"trend": 92.070902, "fair_value": 71.709532, "relative_strength": -3.406307, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.328662, "energy": 14.892688, "activity_lines": [ 92.898623, 93.390379, 92.435929, 92.092413 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 93.14, "volume": 593184, "typical_volume": 1184001.3, "trend": 92.103445, "fair_value": 72.018951, "relative_strength": -1.599005, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.115136, "energy": 12.199826, "activity_lines": [ 92.860224, 93.432483, 92.610342, 92.161387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 95.15, "volume": 654060, "typical_volume": 1166387.45, "trend": 92.237445, "fair_value": 72.345965, "relative_strength": -0.497555, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.393727, "energy": 22.671042, "activity_lines": [ 93.732667, 93.720391, 92.944754, 92.357939 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 92.96, "volume": 665559, "typical_volume": 1157984.85, "trend": 92.187111, "fair_value": 72.653672, "relative_strength": -5.902405, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.510501, "energy": 17.167246, "activity_lines": [ 93.596667, 93.517874, 93.024691, 92.404556 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }