{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c89bd712-5d7e-467b-af2e-d34bd69a0680", "symbol": "CMUD", "name": "Amundi MSCI EMU ESG Selection - UCITS ETF DR - EUR (D)", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.912, "architecture_energy": 65.031, "architecture_maturity": 94.079, "architecture_confidence": 63.97, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.02, "rotation_up": 48.49, "upward_expansion": 76.17, "deceleration": 74.14, "rotation_down": 29.71, "downward_expansion": 16.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 85.588002, 85.472037, 83.475091, 80.939327 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 87.260002, "trend_reference": 77.998566, "distance_from_trend": 0.118739, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 64.468149, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.353537, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.97496, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.187566, "excess_performance": 0.134255, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.118739, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067145, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.353537, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092749, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.09975, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007542, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.187566, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 11.173867, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1573, "relative_activity": 0.118634, "balance": 11.173867, "dry_up": 0.205743, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022688, "annualized_volatility": 0.174206, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.33524 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 77.998566, "fair_value_reference": 64.468149, "structural_low": 66.193001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.005725, "positive_rate": 0.567568, "directional_follow_through": 0.567568, "median_excess_return": 0.002282, "regime_survival": 0.675676, "best_return": 0.074187, "worst_return": -0.050003, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.011164, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.005138, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.088868, "worst_return": -0.039779, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.048115, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.011074, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.175215, "worst_return": -0.179546, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"volume": 1803, "typical_volume": 13494.35, "trend": 77.5348, "fair_value": 64.255341, "relative_strength": 9.888886, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.937997, "energy": 53.693372, "activity_lines": [ 84.900002, 85.006873, 82.761519, 80.311894 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 87.260002, "volume": 1573, "typical_volume": 13259.25, "trend": 77.998566, "fair_value": 64.468149, "relative_strength": 9.97496, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.912009, "energy": 65.030693, "activity_lines": [ 85.588002, 85.472037, 83.475091, 80.939327 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }