{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c89f9039-6366-46b4-8559-3f217c05f211", "symbol": "AIOT", "name": "PowerFleet, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 36.646, "architecture_energy": 22.968, "architecture_maturity": 41.074, "architecture_confidence": 40.331, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.94, "rotation_up": 42.39, "upward_expansion": 44.26, "deceleration": 42.86, "rotation_down": 33.29, "downward_expansion": 16.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.108, 4.096364, 3.902381, 3.778473 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.41, "trend_reference": 3.835333, "distance_from_trend": 0.149835, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.416026, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.001364, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.176219, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.088843, "excess_performance": -0.276297, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.149835, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084646, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.001364, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.211654, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121762, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.251805, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.088843, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.793728, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5723995, "relative_activity": 0.786509, "balance": 0.793728, "dry_up": 0.689626, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119023, "annualized_volatility": 0.640756, "from_high_reference": -0.25, "from_low_reference": 0.589189 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.835333, "fair_value_reference": 4.416026, "structural_low": 2.775, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.065305, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.015247, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.174397, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.016094, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035496, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.617857, "worst_return": -0.185294, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.276471, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.261195, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.528571, "worst_return": -0.439306, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057851, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.025243, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017143, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038536, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035294, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.220225, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.259048, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058047, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.244838, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.10804, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.95, "volume": 510048, "typical_volume": 405517.75, "trend": 2.873833, "fair_value": 4.753077, "relative_strength": -41.471989, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.797208, "energy": 24.44903, "activity_lines": [ 4.051333, 4.033636, 3.790905, 3.743527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.92, "volume": 3707261, "typical_volume": 7575277.05, "trend": 3.872, "fair_value": 4.401154, "relative_strength": -18.108394, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.239113, "energy": 13.408736, "activity_lines": [ 4.004, 4.025091, 3.82519, 3.743763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.41, "volume": 5723995, "typical_volume": 7277719.85, "trend": 3.835333, "fair_value": 4.416026, "relative_strength": -12.176219, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.64591, "energy": 22.968307, "activity_lines": [ 4.108, 4.096364, 3.902381, 3.778473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }