{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c8ac8dee-00d8-4986-8eda-2ff9418dee9c", "symbol": "KVHI", "name": "KVH Industries Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_to_3_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 2 \u2192 3 watch", "confidence": 59.362, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 0.19, "architecture_energy": 6.242, "architecture_maturity": 30.666, "architecture_confidence": 53.483, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 72.73, "rotation_up": 19.2, "upward_expansion": 40.02, "deceleration": 76.72, "rotation_down": 26.43, "downward_expansion": 29.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.788, 8.939455, 9.202, 8.956376 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.03, "trend_reference": 8.4455, "distance_from_trend": -0.049198, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.862212, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.36979, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.332403, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.34958, "excess_performance": 0.162126, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049198, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106905, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.36979, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.328185, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.043324, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.330256, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.34958, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.60876, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1114652, "relative_activity": 0.958738, "balance": 0.60876, "dry_up": 0.884743, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.184771, "annualized_volatility": 0.738169, "from_high_reference": -0.382308, "from_low_reference": 0.577603 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.4455, "fair_value_reference": 5.862212, "structural_low": 5.76, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.047799, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.041498, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.271701, "worst_return": -0.128122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.138528, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.058323, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.593145, "worst_return": 0.005671, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.210622, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.015814, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.855596, "worst_return": -0.095142, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.143725, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.171094, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.339319, "worst_return": -0.477273, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056842, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023109, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.141304, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.018149, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", 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8.202833, "fair_value": 5.839776, "relative_strength": 11.806964, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.611266, "energy": 13.515497, "activity_lines": [ 9.22, 9.251091, 9.298024, 8.812806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.12, "volume": 1298715, "typical_volume": 1110467.3, "trend": 8.2725, "fair_value": 5.842276, "relative_strength": 14.829599, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.397905, "energy": 15.155651, "activity_lines": [ 9.200667, 9.182727, 9.31919, 8.871978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.06, "volume": 875236, "typical_volume": 1146602.9, "trend": 8.348167, "fair_value": 5.845801, "relative_strength": 15.171537, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.816743, "energy": 13.432982, "activity_lines": [ 9.128, 9.117455, 9.319929, 8.922785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.26, "volume": 825891, "typical_volume": 1158723.65, "trend": 8.421167, "fair_value": 5.850032, "relative_strength": 16.302979, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.303425, "energy": 12.642399, "activity_lines": [ 9.160667, 9.118182, 9.324714, 8.981613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.03, "volume": 1114652, "typical_volume": 1162623.6, "trend": 8.4455, "fair_value": 5.862212, "relative_strength": -4.332403, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.18994, "energy": 6.242365, "activity_lines": [ 8.788, 8.939455, 9.202, 8.956376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }