{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c8ac93d3-e7a1-4406-b552-d9cc1b74851d", "symbol": "BVA", "name": "Top Glove Corporation Bhd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.069, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.972, "architecture_energy": 56.069, "architecture_maturity": 12.856, "architecture_confidence": 76.208, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.93, "rotation_up": 15.06, "upward_expansion": 26.18, "deceleration": 50.57, "rotation_down": 73.39, "downward_expansion": 58.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.202667, 0.209455, 0.223314, 0.221187 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.197, "trend_reference": 0.215467, "distance_from_trend": -0.085705, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.248511, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.20728, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.778032, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.042328, "excess_performance": -0.112507, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.085705, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037332, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.20728, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158881, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.18778, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.263775, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.042328, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.060528, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20217800, "relative_activity": 0.585518, "balance": 3.060528, "dry_up": 0.271098, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089028, "annualized_volatility": 0.499141, "from_high_reference": -0.308772, "from_low_reference": 0.145349 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.215467, "fair_value_reference": 0.248511, "structural_low": 0.172, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.061224, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.030591, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.512193, "worst_return": -0.096156, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.160221, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.100291, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.512193, "worst_return": -0.10909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.170733, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.121626, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.244442, "worst_return": -0.312729, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.10909, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.212, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.063129, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010363, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058201, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085106, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.12766, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039024, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.233937, "volume": 6708300, "typical_volume": 22808900.0, "trend": 0.267565, "fair_value": 0.758164, "relative_strength": -6.24783, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", 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"close": 0.205, "volume": 9063800, "typical_volume": 38710495.0, "trend": 0.215733, "fair_value": 0.24909, "relative_strength": -14.634349, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.696133, "energy": 53.844932, "activity_lines": [ 0.207667, 0.219182, 0.228248, 0.223099 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.205, "volume": 4734700, "typical_volume": 36466710.0, "trend": 0.2159, "fair_value": 0.248779, "relative_strength": -14.797964, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.70261, "energy": 54.062836, "activity_lines": [ 0.206333, 0.214545, 0.22619, 0.222406 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.197, "volume": 20217800, "typical_volume": 34529745.0, "trend": 0.215467, "fair_value": 0.248511, "relative_strength": -18.778032, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.971761, "energy": 56.069429, "activity_lines": [ 0.202667, 0.209455, 0.223314, 0.221187 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }