{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c8aca12a-69f6-4b1f-8883-3a2968d2cb35", "symbol": "CH", "name": "Chin Huay Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.349, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.013, "architecture_energy": 49.108, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.39, "rotation_up": 25.93, "upward_expansion": 7.34, "deceleration": 59.58, "rotation_down": 54.26, "downward_expansion": 83.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.477333, 1.481091, 1.498074, 1.526017 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.47, "trend_reference": 1.569711, "distance_from_trend": -0.063522, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.986608, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.260045, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.003881, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.1287, "excess_performance": -0.321025, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.063522, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02241, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.260045, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009437, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.230039, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005855, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.1287, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.100756, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 380600, "relative_activity": 1.617063, "balance": 0.100756, "dry_up": 0.841034, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024594, "annualized_volatility": 0.097738, "from_high_reference": -0.250682, "from_low_reference": 0.020833 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.569711, "fair_value_reference": 1.986608, "structural_low": 1.44, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.019092, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.005004, "regime_survival": 0.9375, "best_return": 0.078313, "worst_return": -0.146739, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.076087, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.076452, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.137931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.142335, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.092435, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.137931, "worst_return": -0.146739, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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82900, "typical_volume": 338670.0, "trend": 1.587603, "fair_value": 2.021184, "relative_strength": -23.394452, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.213082, "energy": 74.282142, "activity_lines": [ 1.497333, 1.509091, 1.536898, 1.565556 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.47, "volume": 37700, "typical_volume": 317960.0, "trend": 1.583962, "fair_value": 2.015662, "relative_strength": -26.758002, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.311735, "energy": 78.110274, "activity_lines": [ 1.486667, 1.500182, 1.526841, 1.557969 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.49, "volume": 87500, "typical_volume": 303750.0, "trend": 1.581314, "fair_value": 2.010033, "relative_strength": -25.344545, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.507881, "energy": 71.722569, "activity_lines": [ 1.486, 1.496182, 1.520049, 1.551907 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.48, "volume": 143200, "typical_volume": 296070.0, "trend": 1.578333, "fair_value": 2.003634, "relative_strength": -25.89395, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.120663, "energy": 60.665347, "activity_lines": [ 1.483333, 1.491273, 1.513524, 1.54537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.48, "volume": 216700, "typical_volume": 279525.0, "trend": 1.57666, "fair_value": 1.997823, "relative_strength": -25.351386, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.887705, "energy": 53.028427, "activity_lines": [ 1.481333, 1.487636, 1.507939, 1.539026 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.48, "volume": 51300, "typical_volume": 267520.0, "trend": 1.574987, "fair_value": 1.992248, "relative_strength": -23.755998, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.125081, "energy": 49.439085, "activity_lines": [ 1.480667, 1.484909, 1.503153, 1.53279 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.47, "volume": 380600, "typical_volume": 235365.0, "trend": 1.569711, "fair_value": 1.986608, "relative_strength": -23.003881, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.012873, "energy": 49.10814, "activity_lines": [ 1.477333, 1.481091, 1.498074, 1.526017 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }