{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c8c603b4-33af-47b2-bc25-ff690e9288f5", "symbol": "MTG-A", "name": "Modern Times Group MTG AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.719, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.059, "architecture_energy": 39.481, "architecture_maturity": 54.186, "architecture_confidence": 83.642, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.36, "rotation_up": 38.62, "upward_expansion": 69.97, "deceleration": 91.89, "rotation_down": 28.03, "downward_expansion": 10.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 125.466667, 124.418182, 124.164286, 118.012903 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 129.0, "trend_reference": 110.75, "distance_from_trend": 0.164786, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 97.831795, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.31859, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.121572, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.449438, "excess_performance": 0.387944, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.164786, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034241, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.31859, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07832, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.031216, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063265, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.449438, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.979642, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 532, "relative_activity": 0.724253, "balance": 0.979642, "dry_up": 0.758968, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054264, "annualized_volatility": 0.382065, "from_high_reference": -0.078571, "from_low_reference": 0.602484 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 110.75, "fair_value_reference": 97.831795, "structural_low": 80.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.006211, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.03356, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.100671, "worst_return": -0.144068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.005414, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.046649, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.112788, "worst_return": -0.225664, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.111801, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.018267, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.159292, "worst_return": -0.194444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.188119, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061538, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053097, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": 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"Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 57.570629, "energy": 83.043915, "activity_lines": [ 119.0, 107.981818, 101.069048, 102.495699 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "close": 135.0, "volume": 1319, "typical_volume": 960.0, "trend": 106.816667, "fair_value": 93.440769, "relative_strength": 15.026982, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 64.872362, "energy": 87.616802, "activity_lines": [ 126.533333, 114.254545, 104.366667, 104.348387 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 134.0, "volume": 1165, "typical_volume": 879.35, "trend": 107.083333, "fair_value": 93.835, "relative_strength": 10.291383, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 54.272917, "energy": 83.927367, "activity_lines": [ 130.866667, 119.481818, 107.459524, 106.102151 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 130.0, "volume": 504, "typical_volume": 852.4, "trend": 107.083333, "fair_value": 94.219615, "relative_strength": 7.350291, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.516115, "energy": 88.693462, "activity_lines": [ 131.6, 123.118182, 110.061905, 107.580645 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 131.0, "volume": 507, "typical_volume": 842.05, "trend": 107.383333, "fair_value": 94.642692, "relative_strength": 9.015292, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.977136, "energy": 82.563208, "activity_lines": [ 131.8, 126.127273, 112.65, 109.123656 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 120.0, "volume": 550, "typical_volume": 852.05, "trend": 107.55, "fair_value": 95.011282, "relative_strength": 0.240808, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.597595, "energy": 62.60685, "activity_lines": [ 127.8, 126.4, 114.090476, 109.937634 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 131.0, "volume": 117, "typical_volume": 843.45, "trend": 108.15, "fair_value": 95.415128, "relative_strength": 7.412187, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.113867, "energy": 54.276473, "activity_lines": [ 128.133333, 128.181818, 116.511905, 111.450538 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 123.0, "volume": 26, "typical_volume": 778.7, "trend": 108.183333, "fair_value": 95.758077, "relative_strength": 2.068416, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.750303, "energy": 42.837037, "activity_lines": [ 126.066667, 127.8, 118.052381, 112.408602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 123.0, "volume": 185, "typical_volume": 780.45, "trend": 108.516667, "fair_value": 96.113846, "relative_strength": -0.414823, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.183059, "energy": 34.436884, "activity_lines": [ 124.733333, 127.0, 119.430952, 113.364516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 123.0, "volume": 150, "typical_volume": 763.15, "trend": 108.983333, "fair_value": 96.463205, "relative_strength": 2.150829, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.123336, "energy": 34.498689, "activity_lines": [ 123.866667, 126.090909, 120.645238, 114.298925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 115.0, "volume": 465, "typical_volume": 708.45, "trend": 109.083333, "fair_value": 96.745256, "relative_strength": -3.249918, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.153379, "energy": 25.996432, "activity_lines": [ 120.866667, 123.727273, 120.92381, 114.687097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 120.0, "volume": 341, "typical_volume": 715.7, "trend": 109.35, "fair_value": 97.068974, "relative_strength": -0.661904, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.096003, "energy": 24.547732, "activity_lines": [ 119.866667, 122.545455, 121.542857, 115.391398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 131.0, "volume": 892, "typical_volume": 718.7, "trend": 110.016667, "fair_value": 97.46, "relative_strength": 6.838114, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.556076, "energy": 30.803052, "activity_lines": [ 123.266667, 123.636364, 123.054762, 116.788172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 129.0, "volume": 532, "typical_volume": 734.55, "trend": 110.75, "fair_value": 97.831795, "relative_strength": 3.121572, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.058599, "energy": 39.480623, "activity_lines": [ 125.466667, 124.418182, 124.164286, 118.012903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }