{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c8caf296-9092-415a-8ed6-70ce76a0f5b6", "symbol": "XDWT", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Information Technology UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.199, "architecture_energy": 44.419, "architecture_maturity": 72.042, "architecture_confidence": 95.463, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.04, "rotation_up": 39.57, "upward_expansion": 66.49, "deceleration": 94.22, "rotation_down": 29.31, "downward_expansion": 15.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 121.677333, 121.657454, 119.63419, 114.820386 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 126.480003, "trend_reference": 108.921999, "distance_from_trend": 0.161198, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 86.425641, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.463455, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 12.009223, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.314898, "excess_performance": 0.250258, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.161198, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070609, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.463455, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051014, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.120092, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06008, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.314898, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.278449, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 263459, "relative_activity": 1.803741, "balance": 2.278449, "dry_up": 1.395508, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043339, "annualized_volatility": 0.243084, "from_high_reference": -0.001894, "from_low_reference": 0.409405 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 108.921999, "fair_value_reference": 86.425641, "structural_low": 89.739998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.020102, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.013092, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.101006, "worst_return": -0.030649, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.097006, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.08288, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.17297, "worst_return": -0.045802, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.199855, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.148784, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.290604, "worst_return": -0.019044, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.179385, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027309, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060761, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.083047, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072617, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": 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48.699082, "energy": 46.277201, "activity_lines": [ 121.275999, 121.783272, 116.966047, 112.097419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 120.839996, "volume": 167309, "typical_volume": 139973.5, "trend": 107.502666, "fair_value": 85.599423, "relative_strength": 13.042894, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.804121, "energy": 43.455083, "activity_lines": [ 120.901331, 121.624362, 117.896713, 113.002021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 117.279999, "volume": 206702, "typical_volume": 140785.75, "trend": 108.072666, "fair_value": 85.976539, "relative_strength": 7.110223, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.016332, "energy": 32.537188, "activity_lines": [ 119.666665, 120.776362, 118.377189, 113.632816 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 126.480003, "volume": 263459, "typical_volume": 146062.55, "trend": 108.921999, "fair_value": 86.425641, "relative_strength": 12.009223, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.198887, "energy": 44.418772, "activity_lines": [ 121.677333, 121.657454, 119.63419, 114.820386 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }