{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c8cbc69c-8b93-4119-9d43-52fcf87a3ccc", "symbol": "603099", "name": "Changbai Mountain Tourism Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 2.349, "architecture_energy": 14.585, "architecture_maturity": 16.582, "architecture_confidence": 75.657, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.66, "rotation_up": 38.15, "upward_expansion": 32.6, "deceleration": 43.93, "rotation_down": 20.85, "downward_expansion": 45.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.78, 36.986218, 36.750951, 36.972404 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 38.91, "trend_reference": 38.169726, "distance_from_trend": 0.019394, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.958153, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.21753, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.920809, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.122858, "excess_performance": -0.079655, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019394, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091889, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.21753, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018731, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069208, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.144155, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.122858, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.055913, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30220148, "relative_activity": 1.279829, "balance": 1.055913, "dry_up": 1.35165, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059361, "annualized_volatility": 0.282743, "from_high_reference": -0.355047, "from_low_reference": 0.178377 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.169726, "fair_value_reference": 31.958153, "structural_low": 33.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.032609, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.074304, "regime_survival": 0.307692, "best_return": 0.311897, "worst_return": -0.097285, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.088796, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.055629, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.419078, "worst_return": -0.30628, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.351464, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.179639, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.259686, "worst_return": -0.215459, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.308093, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036342, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009459, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.136345, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071166, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.007636, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025613, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022546, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007651, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 13.641308, "volume": 23693300, "typical_volume": 35101020.15, "trend": 10.671108, "fair_value": 9.217859, "relative_strength": 35.583361, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.690573, 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"close": 35.040001, "volume": 28581624, "typical_volume": 21235436.85, "trend": 39.326726, "fair_value": 31.345041, "relative_strength": -17.833289, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.565606, "energy": 42.696101, "activity_lines": [ 35.570012, 36.328893, 36.268176, 37.29186 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.389999, "volume": 32209861, "typical_volume": 21824013.8, "trend": 38.985726, "fair_value": 31.496602, "relative_strength": -9.190589, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.857465, "energy": 33.783599, "activity_lines": [ 35.693297, 36.277951, 36.261405, 37.102393 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.830002, "volume": 27035125, "typical_volume": 22173829.8, "trend": 38.601393, "fair_value": 31.640175, "relative_strength": -11.566446, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.815524, "energy": 31.808787, "activity_lines": [ 35.733782, 36.113737, 36.214635, 36.898798 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.209999, "volume": 38198997, "typical_volume": 22948002.4, "trend": 38.377726, "fair_value": 31.798277, "relative_strength": -3.628773, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.361899, "energy": 2.855921, "activity_lines": [ 36.948533, 36.597341, 36.499388, 36.938063 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.91, "volume": 30220148, "typical_volume": 23612653.0, "trend": 38.169726, "fair_value": 31.958153, "relative_strength": -6.920809, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.348588, "energy": 14.584746, "activity_lines": [ 37.78, 36.986218, 36.750951, 36.972404 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }