{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c8d75e89-6ae5-4642-9a5b-1ea872abadf4", "symbol": "ORR", "name": "MILITIA LONG/SHORT EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.124, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.68, "architecture_energy": 79.271, "architecture_maturity": 7.692, "architecture_confidence": 64.108, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.14, "rotation_up": 80.18, "upward_expansion": 92.04, "deceleration": 41.92, "rotation_down": 8.74, "downward_expansion": 16.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.23004, 37.530529, 36.969029, 36.872308 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 39.43, "trend_reference": 36.811057, "distance_from_trend": 0.071146, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.434079, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.215697, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.300654, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.050626, "excess_performance": -0.136827, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071146, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031753, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.215697, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046936, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013007, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055485, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.050626, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.008116, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 469487, "relative_activity": 0.713261, "balance": 1.008116, "dry_up": 0.523672, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028322, "annualized_volatility": 0.171312, "from_high_reference": -0.009296, "from_low_reference": 0.28625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.811057, "fair_value_reference": 32.434079, "structural_low": 35.0101, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 37.01, "volume": 529729, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.7045, "volume": 327499, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.9072, "volume": 207298, "typical_volume": 739177.0, "trend": 36.530803, "fair_value": 32.267181, "relative_strength": -2.361792, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.635384, "energy": 25.15231, "activity_lines": [ 36.798267, 36.590409, 36.463188, 36.548879 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.79, "volume": 374495, "typical_volume": 686211.55, "trend": 36.676057, "fair_value": 32.34771, "relative_strength": 2.010813, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.654614, "energy": 61.271044, "activity_lines": [ 37.498153, 37.025651, 36.691894, 36.694634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.43, "volume": 469487, "typical_volume": 658226.3, "trend": 36.811057, "fair_value": 32.434079, "relative_strength": -1.300654, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.679737, "energy": 79.271436, "activity_lines": [ 38.23004, 37.530529, 36.969029, 36.872308 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }