{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c8de4d70-f944-4a69-8e31-e77f68d97ccd", "symbol": "QCOM", "name": "QUALCOMM Incorporated", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 72.611, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.161, "architecture_energy": 34.242, "architecture_maturity": 38.134, "architecture_confidence": 58.951, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.61, "rotation_up": 14.12, "upward_expansion": 17.27, "deceleration": 62.78, "rotation_down": 63.4, "downward_expansion": 42.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 142.081337, 153.683275, 163.401535, 155.659707 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 143.380005, "trend_reference": 145.756324, "distance_from_trend": -0.016303, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 139.959639, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.024438, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.867398, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.232378, "excess_performance": 0.058131, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016303, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041492, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.024438, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.400418, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.188674, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.390319, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.232378, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.02122, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1952, "relative_activity": 0.673638, "balance": 1.02122, "dry_up": 1.027021, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.153876, "annualized_volatility": 0.684532, "from_high_reference": -0.342053, "from_low_reference": 0.356675 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 145.756324, "fair_value_reference": 139.959639, "structural_low": 105.684853, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.051965, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.068632, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.046716, "worst_return": -0.131767, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.122846, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.002841, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.401152, "worst_return": -0.211715, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.011941, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.02749, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.307566, "worst_return": -0.105453, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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177.943999, 185.499396, 167.11736, 155.793944 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 165.139999, "volume": 6297, "typical_volume": 2450.6, "trend": 146.795985, "fair_value": 138.984497, "relative_strength": -5.844971, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.38146, "energy": 24.152612, "activity_lines": [ 171.939999, 181.759435, 168.502528, 157.00608 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 145.100006, "volume": 2886, "typical_volume": 2579.2, "trend": 146.634278, "fair_value": 139.249609, "relative_strength": -15.335224, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.271522, "energy": 22.787527, "activity_lines": [ 161.280002, 174.227372, 167.767182, 156.896662 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 148.300003, "volume": 3686, "typical_volume": 2738.85, "trend": 146.673196, "fair_value": 139.500283, "relative_strength": -14.324729, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.258394, "energy": 23.633555, "activity_lines": [ 154.317336, 168.109884, 167.214506, 157.004129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 128.520004, "volume": 3380, "typical_volume": 2848.7, "trend": 146.065354, "fair_value": 139.667132, "relative_strength": -25.335391, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.720726, "energy": 35.725448, "activity_lines": [ 144.049337, 158.848784, 164.633068, 155.832955 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 143.380005, "volume": 1952, "typical_volume": 2897.7, "trend": 145.756324, "fair_value": 139.959639, "relative_strength": -18.867398, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.160776, "energy": 34.242479, "activity_lines": [ 142.081337, 153.683275, 163.401535, 155.659707 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }